The Electric Commentary

Cancer Fighting Beer

2008-11-08T16:01:00.001-06:00

Pre-Election Reading

2008-11-03T20:29:00.002-06:00

Before you step into the booth tomorrow, I'd recommend picking up a copy of Bryan Caplan's The Myth of the Rational Voter, and James Surowiecki's The Wisdom of Crowds. (They complement each other nicely, as the former draws heavily on the latter.)

Much of the bad policy-making in America can be blamed on the two-party system, in my opinion. Surowiecki convincingly argues that groups make bad decisions under the following scenarios:

Too homogeneous

Surowiecki stresses the need for diversity within a crowd to ensure enough variance in approach, thought process, and private information.

The two-party system takes a plethora of different views based on many perspectives and countless areas of expertise (and a bunch of garbage) and boils it down into two fairly similar parties, and forces a diverse crowd to select between them. This destroys the advantages of having such a diverse populace, and turns one of America's greatest strengths into a huge weakness.

Too centralized

The Columbia shuttle disaster, which he blames on a hierarchical NASA management bureaucracy that was totally closed to the wisdom of low-level engineers.

Parties tend to dictate position from the top down focusing on a few major issues while ignoring the practical value of said policies. As economist Robin Hanson frequently says, "politics is not about policy."

Too divided

The US Intelligence community failed to prevent the 11 September 2001 attacks partly because information held by one subdivision was not accessible by another. Surowiecki's argument is that crowds (of intelligence analysts in this case) work best when they choose for themselves what to work on and what information they need. (He cites the SARS-virus isolation as an example in which the free flow of data enabled laboratories around the world to coordinate research without a central point of control.)
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the CIA have created a Wikipedia style information sharing network called Intellipedia that will help the free flow of information to prevent such failures again.

Having only two parties presents a black/white divide with no shades of gray available.

Too imitative

Where choices are visible and made in sequence, an "information cascade"[2] can form in which only the first few decision makers gain anything by contemplating the choices available: once past decisions have become sufficiently informative, it pays for later decision makers to simply copy those around them. This can lead to fragile social outcomes.

Information cascades can be good or bad, but in the realm of politics they are almost always bad. Perhaps the finest example of an information cascade takes place in the primaries. Ideally when aggregating data, in order for the group to be as smart as possible you want the members of that group to express their opinions as close together in time as possible. This preserves independence, and allows the group to contribute all of its local and personal knowledge free from influence. The primaries take the opposite approach, and collect the opinions of voters at periodic intervals over a long period of time. States that vote earlier have the ability to remove options from those who vote later, thereby creating a cascade, where each early state that a candidate wins makes it more likely that that they will win the next state, even if that state is vastly different demographically, which in turn makes it more likely that the candidate will win later and later states.

The simplest thing that America could do to increase the quality of politicians is to institute a national primary.

Too emotional

Emotional factors, such as a feeling of belonging, can lead to peer pressure, herd instinct, and in extreme cases collective hysteria.

"Obama is a Muslim! A Communist Muslim! Who hangs out with terrorists! And kills babies!"

If anyone says any of this to you, back away slowly and avoid eye contact, and note that not only does this person have the right to vote, but they are also MORE likely to vote than a normal sane person.

The two party system kills independence and diversity. The primaries destroy much of democracy's info-aggregation powers. The sport-team like mindset in which winning is more important than policy drives people to vote out of emotion instead of logic.

Maybe democracy is the worst system except for all the others, but there are ways to improve it. Until then, expect more of this.

Brewed Sports

2008-09-17T10:32:00.001-05:00

Why not check out my sports blog?

Deadspin Packer Preview

2008-08-12T16:03:00.002-05:00

The esteemed AJ Daulerio was kind enough to publish my Packer Preview on Deadspin. You can read it here.

Steve Phillips, Brad Lidge, and The All-Star Game

2008-08-11T08:20:00.003-05:00

Charlie Manuel thinks that Phillies closer Brad Lidge may have been hurt in the All-Star game, as he was asked to warm up 6 times and reportedly threw over 100 pitches. This is insane, and Manuel is right to be pissed off.

However, if there's one thing we know about ESPN commentator and former Mets GM Steve Phillips, it's that he can be counted on to make an idiot out of himself even when the facts are clear. Steve clearly doesn't like that the All-Star game counts for something, and ripped this setup when, on Mike and Mike this morning he said the following (paraphrased, obviously):

This is what happens when you have a game that counts, and managers are forced to do things that they would never do otherwise.

Now, in true Steve Phillips fashion, this sentence is stupid on several levels. First of all, it contradicts itself. Most baseball games count, and managers are accustomed to managing such games.

It's also factually inaccurate. The problem of player usage at the All-Star game stems from managers ignoring incentives, and still treating the game as an exhibition. No manager would ever run out of pitchers in a normal game, even though 4 of those pitchers are almost completely off limits. In the All-Star game, a manager running out of pitchers speaks to the shittiness of the manager, not to a problem with the All-Star Game.

If you have a problem with the All-Star game, that's fine. I think the game should count for something since players apparently don't have enough Herm Edwards in them to play the game hard on their own, and otherwise the All-Star game is pointless. But if you do have a problem with the game, you should at the very least have a decent argument against it.

Of course, Steve Phillips' first instinct is probably to blame the system and not managerial incompetence, for obvious reasons.

Do Not Trade Favre To The Vikings

2008-08-04T07:56:00.003-05:00

In what would be the ultimate checkmate in this chess match of stupidity, the Packers are apparently considering trading Brett Favre to the Vikings.

This would be a very bad idea.

The market for Favre is obviously weak at the moment. Trading a QB during a weak QB market is stupid to begin with. Trading him to a division rival is lunacy.

Every year the market for QB picks up. This is the league that gave Jeff George interviews and tryouts (and the occasional job) for like 15 years after his, uhm, "prime."

Moreover, the Vikings only real weak spot is the terrible Tarvaris Jackson at QB. Their defensive line is fantastic after the acquisition Jared Allen. Their linebackers are OK, and their DBs, while not great, will benefit from the front four.

Offensively, their line is outstanding. Their RBs are outstanding. Their WRs do suck, but this is one of those situations where it's hard to separate the QB from the wideouts. Bernard Berrian is OK.

Up front, the Vikings are stacked. If you give them even an average QB they become one of the strongest teams in the NFC. If you give the Vikings a QB, you are bailing them out.

Basically any course of action would be superior to a trade with the Vikings. Sitting Favre on the bench would be better. Trading with the Bears (or any other team) would be better. Waiting for his value to increase would be better.

If the front office actually does this, they should all be fired.

Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn is dead

2008-08-03T22:40:00.003-05:00

From Bryan Caplan:

But let us be generous. We will not shoot them. We will not pour salt water into them, nor bury them in bedbugs, nor bridle them up into a "swan dive," nor keep them on sleepless "stand-up" for a week, nor kick them with jackboots, nor beat them with rubber truncheons, nor squeeze their skulls with iron rings, nor push them into a cell so that they lie atop one another like pieces of baggage - we will not do any of the things they did! But for the sake of our country and our children we have the duty to seek them all out and bring them all to trial! Not to put them on trial so much as their crimes. And to compel each one of them to announce loudly:

"Yes, I was an executioner and a murderer."
--The Gulag Archipelago

I was recently driving with someone, listening to NPR. The host stated that we won the "war of ideas" with the communists. My friend took great umbrage with this statement, claiming that we only won economically and militarily. I spouted off immediately about the deaths. The gulag. The forced famine. The murders.

Communism pisses me off. Solzhenitsyn allowed me to be informed enough to be pissed off.

Fun Friday: I Think I'll Have Myself A Beer

2008-08-01T08:30:00.002-05:00

Beer makes us stronger as a people. Seriously:

To avoid dangerous water, people had to drink large quantities of, say, beer. But to digest that beer, individuals needed a genetic advantage that not everyone had -- what Johnson describes as the body's ability to respond to the intake of alcohol by increasing the production of particular enzymes called alcohol dehydrogenases. This ability is controlled by certain genes on chromosome four in human DNA, genes not evenly distributed to everyone. Those who lacked this trait could not, as the saying goes, "hold their liquor." So, many died early and childless, either of alcohol's toxicity or from waterborne diseases.

The gene pools of human settlements became progressively dominated by the survivors -- by those genetically disposed to, well, drink beer. "Most of the world's population today," Johnson writes, "is made up of descendants of those early beer drinkers, and we have largely inherited their genetic tolerance for alcohol."

That's George Will discussing the book, The Ghost Map: The Story of London's Most Terrifying Epidemic -- and How It Changed Science, Cities, and the Modern World, by Steven Johnson.

Evolutionarily speaking, I'm fit as a fiddle.

2+2=5

2008-07-30T13:35:00.002-05:00

Here is the headline:

Council bans new fast-food outlets in South L.A.

And here is a quote from a member of the council in question:

I believe this is a victory for the people of South and southeast Los Angeles, for them to have greater food options,

I'll assume that further explanation is not needed. Well, OK, one more quote:

This will buy us time to aggressively market the district and show potential developers that we are not only open for business, but have some substantive incentives to make it worth their while to develop in South L.A.

There is, after all, nothing that business like to see more than, um, shutting down businesses.

10 Things Brewers Fans Have Over Cubs Fans

2008-07-30T13:11:00.001-05:00

1. We do not have Jay Mariotti.

2. Wrigley Field may have the worst food in all of sports.

3. We don’t have as many racist or homophobic T-Shirts.

4. We have Bob Uecker. You have Ron Santo.

5. Here are some actual lyrics from “Go Cubs Go”:

“Well this is the year and the Cubs are real
So come on down to Wrigley Field.”

They’re real! Just like Pinocchio! Also, “real” and “field” almost rhyme.

“Baseball season's underway
Well you better get ready for a brand new day”

Hey, why don't I just go and eat some hay. I can lay by the bay, make things out of clay, I just may, what'd ya say?

“So stamp your feet and clap your hands
Chicago Cubs got the greatest fans.”

Did they let Hawk Harrelson write that verse?

(For those who are unfamiliar with The Hawk, he is one of the TV guys for the White Sox, known for his excessive homerism and poor grasp of the English language. When an opposing batter strikes out he simply says “He gone.” He killed Lisa’s grammar robot, Linguo. He also has the worst home run call in the history of baseball. Yes, even worse than Ron Santo’s “Ooooooooooh yes!”)

6. The very best beer at Wrigley Field is Old Style. Ewwww.

7. We never let Ozzy Osbourne or Jeff Gordon sing. Instead we have sausages race.

8. We are allowed to have Friday night games.

9. Our crosstown rivals did not win a World Series in 2005.

10. Aside from all of the scapegoats used by Cubs fans (Bartman, Durham, Brant Brown, etc.) they actually blame and honest-to-god goat. It’s supposed to be a figure of speech, you idiots.

Bonus Thing Packer Fans Have Over Bear Fans

We may not know who our quarterback is, but we know he isn’t Rex.

On the season we’re 4 up, and 4 down. In the words of Al Bundy, let’s rock.

Sky Kid

2008-07-18T22:28:00.002-05:00

This is Sky Kid.

I had this game for my old-school 8-bit NES. My best friend an I would play it all the time, but we had one major problem. (Besides that fact that playing lots of Sky Kid is kinda lame, but it was one of the few 2-player simultaneous games so cut me some slack.)

In Sky Kid, when you get to the end of a board you have to land your plane on a little landing strip. If you fly over the landing strip you run out of gas and crash into the ocean.

Somewhere around the 26th board, you get to the end of the board and there's no landing strip, All of a sudden you just crash into the ocean. I've never been able to figure this out, and sometimes, in my darkest moments, it drives me nuts. My friend even tried playing all the way through on an emulator in slo-mo, to no avail.

So, if anyone out there knows how to land on the 26th board in the NES version of Sky Kid, let me know.

Vampire Weekend

2008-07-18T21:45:00.002-05:00

The Vampire Weekend pulled off the rare feet of producing an album that is outstanding from start to finish. Part Police, part Strokes, part Paul Simon, with a touch of Sublime, it's great summer music.

Here's M79:

And Oxford Comma:

And my personal favorite, Walcott:

Walcott, don't you know that it's insane, don't you wanna get out of Cape Cod...

Terrible News

2008-07-18T21:41:00.002-05:00

Pandora, the internet's greatest radio site, may be shutting down.

“Of Course, The Packers Are Clearly Better With Brett Favre As Their Quarterback”

2008-07-14T15:30:00.002-05:00

Just about everyone who has had anything to say about the Brett Favre situation has made some form of the preceding statement as part of their analysis. Sometimes they claim that Favre gives them their best shot at the Super Bowl. Often they claim that while they do not approve of Favre’s conduct, he is still their best shot at a winner. Well, let’s have a look, shall we?

1. Tee Martin, Peyton Manning

In many ways, Peyton Manning’s college career mirrors Brett Favre’s professional career. He won a ton of games, he set a lot of records, and he suffered from the occasional complete meltdown. His “can’t win the big game” reputation was always underserved, as the Vol defense would frequently put pressure on Manning to put up more and more points. That said, Manning was occasionally not up to the task.

The year after Manning graduated, the less-heralded Tee Martin would lead the Vols to a National Championship; something that the more talented Manning was never able to accomplish.

2. Joe Montana, Steve Young

First of all, to get some perspective on how good Joe Montana was, and wasn’t, I highly recommend Michael Lewis’s book The Blind Side.

After suffering an injury in a playoff game in 1990, Joe Montana saw Steves Young and Bono play all of 1991, with the Stormin’ Mormon eventually winning the Job. Young proved so impressive that before the start of the 1993 season, the 49ers traded their legendary QB to the Kansas City Chiefs. Young lived up to all of the hype, but was foiled on consecutive occasions by the Dallas Dynasty of the early 90s.

In 1994 Young finally pulled a few golden plates out of his hat, completing over 70 percent of his passes, winning the NFL MVP award, defeating the Cowboys and eventually winning the Super Bowl in a game in which he threw 6 TD passes.

Joe Montana still had a productive season in him, but no one questions that keeping Young was the right call.

3. Drew Bledsoe, Tom Brady

In 1996, New England Patriot QB Drew Bledsoe passed for over 4000 yards, 27 TDs against only 15 picks, while completing 60% of his passes. When the Denver Broncos were upset at home by the upstart Jacksonville Jaguars it opened the door for Bledsoe’s Patriots to face the Packers in the Super Bowl. Alas, Bledsoe played poorly down the stretch, eventually throwing 4 picks against a tough Packer defense.

Bledsoe continued to play fairly well for the Patriots, never putting up a passer rating under 75.6 and reaching as high as 87.7, until he suffered and injury in early 2001.

The rest, as they say, is history.

4. Don Majkowski, Brett Favre

Donald Vincent Majkowski’s excellent 1989 campaign bought him time with many a long-suffering Packer fan, as they were just barely eliminated from the playoffs on the last day of the season when the Vikings beat the Bengals. After 1989, Majkowski still played well in spurts, but frequent injuries led to many spot starts by the likes of Anthony Dilweg and Blair Kiel. Majkowski relied on scrambling, good decision making, and an adequate arm to be productive but as his skills started to erode he was knocked to the pine more and more.

That said, Majkowski’s job was secure until that fateful day in 1992 when was knocked out with an injured ankle. How many people thought Favre was the answer at the time? How many of you were genuinely worried about Donny Majik’s health, and figured the season was over without him?

5. Dan Marino, Jay Fiedler

You’re probably thinking that this one is going to be kind of stupid, and that I’m wrong about it. Here are a few numbers:

1. 55.3, 2448, 12, 17
2. 57.1, 2024, 14, 14

The first are Dan Marino’s 1999 stats for completion percentage, yards, TDs, and INTs respectively. The second are Jay Fiedler’s 2000 stats. By 1999 the great Dan Marino wasn’t the same player any more, but had you asked almost anyone if they would rather have had a 39-year-old Dan Marino or a 29-year-old career backup and Dartmouth alum named Jay Fiedler, most would have opted for Marino.

Fiedler was certainly not as flashy, but he was consistent, slightly more accurate, and in the end led the Dolphins to an 11-5 record (a two-win improvement) and an AFC East division championship.

6. Tommy Maddox, Ben Roethlisberger

In hindsight you might not remember just how valuable Tommy Maddox was. The former XFL MVP put up respectable numbers in both 2002 (62.1, 2836, 20, 16) and 2003 (57.4, 3414, 18, 17).

The young Ben Roethlisberger entered the 2004 season behind both Tommy Maddox and Charlie Batch on the depth chart, but injuries to Batch, and ineffectiveness and injuries to Maddox thrust Roethlisberger into the spotlight. There were the usual media clichés about Roethlisberger’s inexperience holding him back, however he went on to lead the Steelers to a 15-1 record while completing 66.4% of his passes, and throwing 17 TDs against just 11 picks. In 2005 Big Ben would lead the Steelers to the Super Bowl, where the Steelers would win even though he played like shit.

7. Troy Aikman, Quincy Carter, Anthony Wright, Clint Stoerner, and Ryan Leaf

A few people remember that Troy Aikman sucked for a brief period at the end of his career, but only a very few remember just how bad he was. Aikman never put up huge numbers like Young or Favre, largely due to their reliance on Emmitt Smith, but he was always efficient, accurate, and threw one of the nicer deep balls that you will see.

By 2000 Aikman had been beaten around quite a bit, and had suffered a number of concussions. The final concussion, caused on a vicious hit by LaVarr Arrington, ended his career, but Aikman may have been washed up anyway. In his final season he completed 59.5%, but his 6.2 yards per attempt were the lowest since his atrocious rookie year. Aikman also fired up an uncharacteristic 2 picks for every TD

You won’t find a quartet of QBs more pathetic than Anthony Wright, Quincy Carter, Clint Stoerner and Ryan Leaf, but if you pro-rate Troy Aikman’s injury-plagued final season to a full 16 games, you will see 59.5, 2374, 10 TDs, 20 INTs. The quartet managed a line of 50.8, 2408, 14, and 20. They certainly aren’t good, but they also did not play worse in 2001 than did Troy Aikman in 2000. Both teams went 5-11. Sometimes legends fade away, and sometimes they have their brains beaten in.

8. Hypothetical: Brett Favre, Matt Hasselbeck

Brett Favre is a legend, but what if he had been slightly less legendary and the Packers had opted to keep Matt Hasselbeck from 2002 onward? (Note, I am cheating a bit here by leaving out Matt’s somewhat injury plagued 2001 season, but this is a hypothetical, so I can do whatever I want. Consider this a disclosure.)

Matt Hasselbeck

2002 – 63.7, 3075, 15, 10
2003 – 61.0, 3841, 26, 15
2004 – 58.9, 3382, 22, 15
2005 – 65.5, 3459, 24, 9
2006 – 56.6, 2442, 18, 15 (12 games)
2007 - 62.6, 3966, 28, 12

Brett Favre

2002 – 61.9, 3658, 27, 16
2003 – 65.4, 3361, 32, 21
2004 – 64.1, 4088, 30, 17
2005 – 61.3, 3881, 20, 29
2006 – 56.0, 3885, 18, 18
2007 – 66.5, 4155, 28, 15

Would they have been much worse? Would they have been worse at all? Keep in mind that between 2001 and 2005 Shaun Alexander never rushed for fewer than 14 TDs and in 2005 rushed for 27 TDs, which depresses Hasselbeck’s raw totals. I am not saying that the Packers would have been better with Hasselbeck. Favre’s numbers are impressive in their own right. What I am saying is that had they discarded the legend, even a few years ago, they would not necessarily have been any worse off. It is also worth pointing out that Matt Hasselbeck’s Seahawks did make it to a Super Bowl in 2005 where Matt outplayed his counterpart Ben Roethlisberger in a losing effort. Also, the officials were terrible in that game.

It is not a given that the post-Favre era will be worse than the recent Favre era. Aaron Rodgers is unproven, but that does not mean that he is bad. The rest of the team is still very good and even if he’s only average this year they can still be a threat. The fact is that you don’t know what you’re getting in Rodgers, but anyone who says that Favre definitively gives the Packers their best chance doesn’t know what they’re talking about.

The 21-Year-Old Drinking Age Kills

2008-07-08T07:57:00.002-05:00

The Associated Press has a fear-mongering article about underage drinking in which touts the same old tired talking points: More laws, more community involvement, more oversight of college students.

Let's say that you were unfamiliar with the statistics on underage drinking, and you were simply told that there was a substance called alcohol which was pleasant when consumed in moderation but dangerous when consumed to excess. You are also told that in this country we forbid people from having alcohol until they are 21 years of age, out of the house, and free from parental supervision. In fact, activist groups like MADD actively campaign against those under the age of 21 consuming any amount of alcohol with their parents.

If you were given these facts and asked to make a prediction, you would probably predict that deaths due to alcohol poisoning would occur as soon as drinkers moved out from under the control of their parents, and again, when they turned 21 and gained the legal ability to drink.

And you would be right:

Freshmen were found to be at greatest risk, with 11 of 18 freshmen deaths occurring during the first semester.

Walters said one reason is that freshmen are on their own for the first time and trying new things. Also, there is a mentality that "if you're under 21 and someone's got alcohol, you've got to drink it, because you never know when somebody's going to have it again."

One practice—drinking 21 shots on a 21st birthday—has proven especially lethal. Of the college-age deaths reviewed, 11 people, including eight college students, died celebrating their 21st birthdays.

If you have half a brain you can see that tragedies like this are caused by the 21-year-old drinking age, not prevented by it. People should learn to drink under the supervision of their parents. They should learn what alcohol does to you, how much is too much, and that drinking is not actually the big deal that the college atmosphere makes it out to be.

Instead we provide incentives for a bunch of inexperienced 21-year-olds (and 19-year-olds) to drink as much as possible with no supervision, no experience, and knowing that if they do actually need help and call for help, that they will be arrested.

Brilliant.

Finally, if you happen to be looking around on the neo-prohibitionist MADD website you will find the following regarding the "myth" that Europeans are safer drinkers than Americans:

Perhaps the best example of fact versus myth when it comes to the “European Myth” is a look at what happened in New Zealand. In 1999, New Zealand lowered its purchase age from 20 to 18. Not only did drunk driving crashes increase, but youth started to drink earlier, binge drinking escalated, and in the 12 months following the decrease in legal drinking age, there was a 50 percent increase in intoxicated 18- and 19-year-old patients at the Auckland Hospital emergency room.

Clearly, Europe has serious issues with youth alcohol use.

Man, they must have been wasted when they wrote that. Or, alternatively, they may not have had any actual European examples.

Me, Myself, and Favre

2008-07-02T21:22:00.002-05:00

Paul: Well, that was certainly a dick move to wait until almost all personnel moves were made - and made under the assumption that he was retired - to talk about possibly coming back.

Noonan: True enough, but we can't let that color our judgment going forward. It may be a dick move, but it presents us with another option, and probably a superior one. Are you telling me that you really prefer Aaron Rodgers to one of the greatest QBs of all time?

Paul: First of all, THIS Brett Favre is not one of the greatest QBs of all time. This Brett Favre was only the 3rd best QB in football last year by DPAR and DVOA, and finished 13th and 12th in those two categories just two years ago. And he's older. We're not comparing Aaron Rodgers to one of the greatest QBs of all time, we're comparing him to a league average-to-good QB who will turn 39 before the snow starts falling in GB.

I grant you that we don't know exactly what we have in Aaron Rodgers, but even if he's just average he won't be that big of a downgrade, and it is quite possible that he will be better than that.

Noonan: Oh come on Mr. I Hate Small Sample Sizes. What Favre's admittedly advanced age gives you is a lot of information, and that information leads you to the idea that he's better than Rodgers, who has been OK in pre-season, and pretty good in one half of professional football. And I might add that he has been injury prone.

Paul: But Favre is not free. If he plays again I believe he becomes their highest paid player again, whereas Rodgers is relatively cheap. Is Favre so much greater than Rodgers that the x-million dollars more, which could be used to add a free agent at a weaker position, is worth it? I think not.

And I don't just have small sample size. The Outsiders, and PECOTA's twin brother KUBIAK like Rogers a lot.

Noonan: KUBIAK is useful, but remember when you drafted Kevin Jones in the first round of your fantasy draft? And this isn't fantasy, this is real life. The Packers are strong at almost every other position, and most truly valuable free agents are already spoken for. Quarterback is the most important position on the field, and even a marginal upgrade is probably worth all of that money. QB is an area where good teams can become great.

Paul: Let me throw a few numbers at you:

1. 2001 54.8, 2023, 7, 8
2002 63.7, 3075, 15, 10
2003 61.0, 3841, 26, 15

2. 2005, 61.3, 3881, 20, 29
2006, 56.0, 3885, 18, 18
2007, 66.5, 4155, 28, 15

The first group are the year, completion percentage, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions of Matt Hasselbeck in his first 3 years as a full time starter. The second group are the same stats for Brett Favre over the last 3 years. I mention this because Aaron Rodgers is in a very similar situation. Hasselbeck was 26 in 2001 and Rodgers will be 25 in 2008. If this were the 26-year-old Hasselbeck instead of the current Aaron Rodgers, what would you do? Sure, his 2001 wasn't great, but he only played in 13 games, and he clearly improved every year after to the extent that it is likely he would have either matched or outplayed Favre in the following year, if we take these three as likely representations of what Favre might do. Frankly, that's being generous given his age.

Noonan: Yeah, maybe. But Rodgers isn't Hasselbeck. Moreover, while everyone is talking about Favre as possible trade bait, why not Rodgers? Remember, we just drafted Brian Brohm. You know, the Brian Brohm who started 3+ years in college and never put up a completion percentage under 63.6 (the two stats which correlate most closely with NFL success)? The Brian Brohm who is definitely a better prospect than was Aaron Rodgers?

Rodgers in a good prospect, but unproven. Favre is a known commodity, and this team is loaded. We can trade Rodgers to shore up the team, make a run with Favre, and if it doesn't pan out, we're still well-prepared with Brohm.

Paul: Ah, but we're assuming again that Favre is the best option this year. Remember, this team was created under the assumption that Favre would be gone. Planning, personnel, and training camp have all been based on this premise.

Moreover, I'm sick of Favre melting down. Most teams have bad days, but most players don't have as bad of days as Favre does. Very few players single-handedly cost their teams as many games as Favre does, and many of his great performances would be wins anyway. He has all those fourth quarter comebacks, but he's absolutely lousy in the last 5 minutes or so. Most of Favre's wins over the last several years have come while protecting leads, while many of his losses involve multiple ridiculous interceptions. He has upside, but some consistency on this team might be nice. Did I write that? Too many JoeChats this week.

Noonan: That's bullshit. Aaron Rodgers will have his bad games too, and plenty of less-than-stellar QBs cost their teams games. Rex Grossman, anyone? Favre is still capable of rattling off three or four good ones, and that is all you need in the playoffs.

Paul: Well, let's talk about the playoffs.

Last year Favre looked really shitty a few times. The first was against the Eagles in a game that they won on special teams. Philly has a good defense. The second was against the Bears in Lambeau, who have a really good defense even when they suck. The third was against the Redskins and Sean Taylor when Brett set the pick record. The next time was that memorable game in Dallas in which Favre sucked, got hurt, and watched Aaron Rodgers rally the team. He then looked shitty against the Bears on the cold day in Soldier, and finally, shitty against the New York Giants.

In short, he did not play well against good defenses, and a few times he melted down completely. The playoffs tend to feature teams with good defenses. How confident are you now?

And trade-wise, you could still get a lot by trading one good Favre year, and still have a pretty good tandem with Rodgers and Brohm, and if need be you can trade one of them later. Favre will be gone soon, whereas Rodgers may torture you for awhile if you trade him.

Noonan: But will Rodgers even get you there? This team is good, and over 16 games we can be confident that Favre will at least get us into the playoffs. As you well know, once you are in the playoffs, randomness takes over and anything can happen. Rodgers might be OK, sure, but what if he is a disaster? Favre covers your worst case scenario at the very least.

Paul: I'm not so sure. If you put a caretaker QB with this team (and I think Rodgers is better than that) I suspect they still make the playoffs. Favre is the ultimate high-risk, high-reward player. Look at his last 3 years above! What if he throws 29 picks again? And don't tell me it couldn't happen. He has a better team now than in 2005, but Favre can put up 20 picks in 5 bad games the way he plays.

The fact is that we are dealing with a great deal of uncertainty here, and the best way to mitigate against that uncertainty is to go with an easier-to-control Aaron Rodgers and use your cost saving to pick up another corner or offensive lineman.

Noonan: Brett is the most certain thing you have going. If he wants to play, you should let him unless your alternatives are named Brady or Manning.

(Censored) Water Torture

2008-07-02T09:31:00.004-05:00

Let's say that you're ordered to torture people at Gitmo. How would you know what techniques to use? Is there some course you could take? Some manual? Well...

The military trainers who came to Guantánamo Bay in December 2002 based an entire interrogation class on a chart showing the effects of “coercive management techniques” for possible use on prisoners, including “sleep deprivation,” “prolonged constraint,” and “exposure.”

Great! Problem solved. I can't help wondering though, where did these trainers get their materials?

What the trainers did not say, and may not have known, was that their chart had been copied verbatim from a 1957 Air Force study of Chinese Communist techniques used during the Korean War to obtain confessions, many of them false, from American prisoners.

The recycled chart is the latest and most vivid evidence of the way Communist interrogation methods that the United States long described as torture became the basis for interrogations both by the military at the base at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, and by the Central Intelligence Agency.

Oh.

But surely, we made some changes, right? I mean, maybe we made these techniques more humane, or at least more effective in obtaining accurate information?

The only change made in the chart presented at Guantánamo was to drop its original title: “Communist Coercive Methods for Eliciting Individual Compliance.”

So, in addition to torturing people with techniques perfected by Chinese Communists over 50 years ago, we're also stealing their intellectual property. Awesome. That unfettered executive power is working out great.

The JoeChat Conspiracy

2008-07-01T08:54:00.000-05:00

If you read FireJoeMorgan regularly, you know that a staple of the site is the JoeChat, in which Ken Tremendous takes select Q&As from Joe Morgan's online chats and comments about just how uninformed, poorly written, and insane the answers are.

A funny thing has been happening lately. Fire Joe Morgan is popular enough that the people asking questions in JoeChats are only doing so to provoke an insane response from Joe. Popular methods of JoeBaiting include:

1. Asking about Gary Sheffield.
2. Using the word "consistency," possibly misspelled.
3. Using the word "concetrate," a misspelling of the word "concentrate."
4. Asking Joe about potential Hall of Famers, as Joe is on the Hall of Fame induction committee (or something like that) and believes that answering would be a conflict of interest or some such nonsense.

There are more, but you get the idea. Lately, almost every person asking a question has been JoeBaiting, and not asking a real question. Here is the latest. Ken Tremendous Schrute Schur is now openly questioning whether JoeBaiting is ruining JoeChats and, whether or not Joe Morgan (or more likely the guy who writes JoeChats, whom we call Bill Fremp because writing "the guy who writes JoeChats for Joe Morgan" takes too long) is messing with him.

If you just assume that Joe is actually writing these things then this seems implausible, as Joe Morgan is really stupid, and so I find this to be very unlikely. I have it on good authority that the only ESPN guys who actually write their own chats are the younger set, while guys of Joe Morgan's age farm it out to interns.

Before moving on, I should point out one other thing. Earlier in the year, during the "Fremp Era" it appeared that Joe had suddenly become somewhat smart (which is what led to the Fremp Theory in the first place). Keep in mind that if Joe is smart, then JoeChats are boring. Then keep in mind that just a few weeks ago on June 18th, 2008, Ken wrote this:

These haven't been that fun lately, frankly. They have their share of "consistently"s and "Sheffield"s and stuff, but in general, whether it's Bill Fremp or Joe getting better or something, the answers aren't that crazy and the jokes are starting to feel the same. So, this may be the last full JoeChat for a while. I may start just picking out individual moments or something...whatever. We'll play it by ear. It's a blog, after all, so we'll wing it.

So basically, Ken Tremendous threatened to quit doing JoeChats on June 18th. And on the very next JoeChat on June 23rd, look what happens. Joe is back to being insane. He can't use the correct form of "their" and "there." And he actually wrote this:

chad rochester ny : joe, do u think the yanks can pull it out and make the playoffs without wang, and if so who do u think will step up

Joe Morgan: Before Wong got hurt,

This cannot just be a typo. Take a look at your keyboard and note that the "a" is way over on the left, while the "o" is way over in the upper right. Also note that there is no baseball fan who does not know that his last name is Wang, because he's on the Yankees which means that his highlights take up the 50% of SportsCenter not devoted to the Red Sox.

And it's been getting crazier and crazier including the most recent JoeChat, which is completely insane.

We know the following:

1. ESPN does, in fact, employ young people, some of whom probably read sites like FJM and Deadspin and the like.

2. Joe Morgan probably does not do his own online chats.

3. JoeChats are only fun when Joe is stupid.

4. Joe, or Fremp, momentarily got smarter.

5. Ken Tremendous basically threatened to quit doing JoeChats.

6.Immediately after this threat, Joe became extremely stupid and completely insane (again).

7. JoeBaiting is so obvious at this point that only the worlds dumbest person would not notice it.

Conclusion: There is only one obvious conclusion. Bill Fremp, the ESPN employee charged with writing JoeChats, ostensibly representing what Joe Morgan would think and say, is actually a reader of FireJoeMorgan, and is writing the JoeChat specifically for comment by Ken Tremendous. I think Fremp was so horrified at the Prospect of FJM ceasing to comment on JoeChats that he decided to go all out with his Joe Morgan-inspired craziness. After all, if you were charged with writing JoeChats, which contain no insight and are largely pointless on their own, and you learned of the existence of FJM, which suddenly brings meaning to your work, and turns it into a sort of postmodern work of art, you would also probably fight to keep FJM interested in what is an otherwise dull activity.

Fremp, I've got you nailed. Sure you nominally work for ESPN, the Worldwide Leader, but I know your secret. In the darkest recesses of your brain, you work for a little blog run by 6 guys who like to critique sports journalism. And really, with your assignment I can't say that I blame you.

Aaaaaaand we're back

2008-06-27T08:07:00.003-05:00

Sorry about the hiatus, but real world concerns dictated the move, and real world always trumps interweb world in my world. Which is the real world. Mostly.

Anyway, the important thing is that the Japanese have invented super-intelligent toilets:

High-end toilets can also sense when someone enters or leaves the bathroom, raising or lowering their lids accordingly. Many models have a "learning mode," which allows them to memorize the lavatory schedules of household members.

The Bush administration has already declared that they have the right to find out any and all information gathered by these toilets.

Also, while I was gone one of our all-time favorite bloggers, the incomparable Ace Cowboy, began blogging again here.

For you Packer fans, Football Outsiders and their KUBIAK projection system have embraced Aaron Rodgers with arms wide open:

Rodgers’ primary attribute is his ability to fit into the offense around him. He can read progressions well and quickly, which is crucial when a quarterback is making all those short throws. In 2007, Cleveland’s Anderson was the beneficiary of an improved pass-blocking line as a first-time starter, but he was also adept at getting rid of the ball quickly and productively. That’s a skill in and of itself — the guys who really can move the ball with short throws are an evolutionary step up from the “chuck-and-duckers” who wash out in the NFL after exploiting college defenses. Rodgers’ success could be very much like Anderson’s, because the system is in place.

The Packers are in good hands with their new starting quarterback. Rodgers will have his struggles, and there will be much gnashing of teeth and rending of garments when that happens and No. 4 isn’t there to bail the Pack out. Still, it’s important to remember that in the Cowboys game, the offense played better with Rodgers than they did with Favre, because Favre was having one of his “Hero Days,” when you never knew what you were going to get. Rodgers was able to implement a game plan, and do it well, under a lot of pressure. Add his sample-size DVOA to the equation (the best for passers with 10 to 99 attempts in 2007), and the (spoiler alert!) positive projections given to him by KUBIAK and Pro Football Prospectus 2008, and it’s pretty clear that fans of the team that has belonged to Brett Favre since the early 1990s will still have reason to cheer in 2008 and beyond.

Hopefully he can take us higher.

(H/T, ESK)

Fun Friday: What Century Are We In?

2008-05-08T21:40:00.001-05:00

Burn him! Burn him!

"I get a call the middle of the day from the supervisor of substitute teachers. He says, 'Jim, we have a huge issue. You can't take any more assignments. You need to come in right away,'" he said.

When Piculas went in, he learned his little magic trick cast a spell that went much farther than he'd hoped.

"I said, 'Well Pat, can you explain this to me?' 'You've been accused of wizardry,' [he said]. Wizardry?" he asked.

Just read the whole stupid thing.

Fun Friday: It's What Plants Crave

2008-05-08T21:37:00.001-05:00

It's real. And it's awesome:

Creepy Sickos

2008-05-02T09:48:00.003-05:00

First, we have Karl Malone, who knocked up a 12 or 13-year-old. Why has this not gotten a "Roger Clemens" level of press?

Next, we have Ben Stein. You know, Ferris Bueller's teacher, former Nixon speechwriter, game-show participant, and star of the new anti-evolution movie Expelled. Ben Stein said this:

When we just saw that man, I think it was Mr. Myers [i.e. biologist P.Z. Myers], talking about how great scientists were, I was thinking to myself the last time any of my relatives saw scientists telling them what to do they were telling them to go to the showers to get gassed ... that was horrifying beyond words, and that's where science -- in my opinion, this is just an opinion -- that's where science leads you.

I think that further comment is unnecessary.

Lastly, we have the top 50 searches at Conservapedia. Conservapedia is, of course, the conservative alternative to Wikipedia. You know, just in case you want to read about people riding around on dinosaurs. Those searching for answers at Conservapedia seem to be focused on one topic in particular.

(H/T, Reason)

Michelle Tafoya on Deadspin: "It Disgusts Me"

2008-04-30T13:21:00.000-05:00

Just now on the Mike Tirico Show Michelle Tafoya said (paraphrasing from memory)

I just went to Deadspin, and I can see why it appeals to...a certain type of person. And it disgusts me.

When she said this the top story on Deadspin was the Ronaldo tranny story. Now, that's a salacious story, but it's not one that ESPN is ignoring.

Deadspin just isn't that bad. Some of it is very clever, and rarely do I hit on anything that I would consider NSFW. For most of the show Tirico has treated Deadspin as this dirty, almost pornographic website. That's just not an accurate description.

Her reaction was right up there with Joe Buck on the Moss Moon.

Buzz Bissinger: Unhinged Weirdo

2008-04-30T13:19:00.000-05:00

In writing about Bob Costas' show last night, it is required that you first state Buzz Bissinger is an excellent writer. He is. Done.

What can you say about the show last night? It was irony upon irony. Without question, Will Leitch was the only member of the panel who had any idea what he was talking about. If only he had been permitted to speak.

Neither Costas nor Bissinger was internet savvy enough to distinguish between blog posts/articles and comments. Commenters, as we all know, are the scum of the blogosphere (Except for you guys. We love you!) and failing to make that distinction is simply inept journalism. Mispronouncing (intentionally, in my opinion) the pen name of Deadspin contributor "Big Daddy Drew" to the more inappropriate "Big Daddy Balls" is similarly inept. Questioning Will Leitch about his knowledge of dead-tree sports writing (and then basically ignoring the fact that he had in fact read W. C. Heinz work) was more akin to a witch trial than a constructive discussion. The fact that they attacked Will using other Deadspin writers while not citing a single example of his own writing was idiotic.

While uttering many a profanity and frothing at the mouth, Buzz Bissinger attacked the civility of blogs, all the while behaving as the worst example of troll or fanboy. Bob Costas was too unfamiliar with the medium to know the correct side to take.

Will Leitch, proprietor of the uncivil, profane, glib, and infantile Deadspin, sat there like a perfect gentleman, never raised his voice in anger, and attempted to make salient points when given the chance.

On TV, actions speak louder than words. The writer showed his true colors. So did the blogger.

Also, Braylon Edwards was there.

Here's MDS

Here's Mr. Tremendous, who contributed to the set-up piece on the show.

Here's Will, once again taking the high road.

Fun Friday: Poorly Designed Logo Edition

2008-04-25T09:36:00.002-05:00

Oh those wacky Brits. This is the new logo for the UK's Office of Government Commerce.

Tee hee. This obviously will not stand, and so the logo is going to be transferred to the Ministry of Cyclops Wrestling.

(H/T, Reason)

Haven't you heard the Jeter is awesome?

2008-04-25T09:25:00.001-05:00

Uhm, if you are a professional sports writer for, let's say, Newsday, and you are going to call out a player (let's say Jose Reyes) for a slow start, and you're going to rip Reyes by comparing him to the fantastical, magical, supercallafragical Derek Jeter, you may want to take a quick look at Jeter's numbers first.

It's What Plants Crave

2008-04-24T10:20:00.001-05:00

MLB has banned water. Yes, that's right. Water. Why?

Because Gatorade gave the order:

Gatorade is Major League Baseball's "official sports drink." So instructions were sent that no player could be seen drinking anything but Gatorade in the dugout. Not even Aquafina, which is the "official water" of MLB. Not even bottles of water with the labels removed.

White Sox clubhouse personnel said if players take bottled water onto the bench, all the bottled water will be removed from the clubhouse as punishment.

Sometimes Mike Judge is scary smart.

It's better than Dinkey-Kong, but not as good as Patfill...

2008-04-06T11:58:00.002-05:00

In today's Chicago Tribune there is a section about retro technology. You know, Vinyl LPs, Polaroid cameras, and the like. There is one section on the good ol' Atari 2600, which contains the following passage:

But when she moved out on her own, she took her Atari system and two dozen games, like Frogger, Hubert and Pac Man, with her. "I like the repetitiveness of the games.

Emphasis mine. Hubert!? If you're going to do a story on retro-technology, make sure you have someone familiar with said technology contributing to the story.

He is, of course, talking about the legendary Q-Bert. Here is a flash version. The snakes name is Curly, by the way. Enjoy!

Quote of the Day

2008-04-06T09:10:00.001-05:00

"Need" now means wanting someone else's money. "Greed" means wanting to keep your own. "Compassion" is when a politician arranges the transfer.

- Joseph Sobran

(H/T, Greg Mankiw)

Charlton Heston's Gun Finally Pried Away

2008-04-06T08:55:00.002-05:00

I'm sorry, I've had that headline knocking around in my head for like five years and I'm happy it have it out. However, I mean no disrespect. Michael Moore's treatment of Heston in "Bowling for Columbine (and my general dislike of Michael Moore) was one of the driving forces behind this blog in its early years. And of course, back in the day Heston was an fine actor. See:

Basketball Prospectus on Wisconsin - Davidson

2008-03-29T12:10:00.001-05:00

From Ken Pomeroy:

I couldn't understand how the four-plus days each team had to prepare somehow benefited Bo Ryan more than his counterpart in this one. It's as if people thought Bob McKillop was just going to tour landmarks in southeast Michigan this week and not game plan. Davidson's run will likely end against Kansas on Sunday, but it's probably not going to end easily. Over and over, Davidson has caused problems for quality opponents this season, so if you're expecting a blowout, you'll probably be disappointed. The Wildcats were given no favors with their draw and yet they'll be playing for a Final Four appearance after averaging more than 1.2 points per possession in their first three games. If they should fail to make it to San Antonio, at least remember this about the '08 Davidson club: no team has shredded a Wisconsin defense over the past two seasons like Davidson did last night.

Davidson's Losses

2008-03-29T12:07:00.004-05:00

If you are anything like me, you spent part of last night wondering how Davidson ever loses a game, since Stephen Curry can hit a three pointer whenever he feels like it. Sure Wisconsin played poorly, ignoring their huge advantage on the interior and settling for contested jumpers, and missing many free throws, but the Davidson offense was simply amazing.

So let's take a look at Davidson's 6 losses and see what we can figure out:

1. 72-68 "At" North Carolina

This is an easy one. They were playing the best team in America and only lost by 4 on a "neutral floor" (the Charlotte Bobcats arena, which I suspect was probably not very neutral). Tyler Hansbrough scored only 14 points and did not hit a field goal in the second half, giving us our first glimpse of Davidson's surprisingly quick and athletic defense. He did go to the line 10 times in typical Hansbrough fashion. What is perhaps more remarkable about this game is that the Tar Heels actually did sort of shut down Mr. Curry, who scored 24 points, but hit only 2/12 from outside the arc. Davidson easily could have taken this game.

2. 83-76 At Western Michigan

In Davidson's worst loss of the year WMU hit over 50% from 3-point range, and more importantly, managed to outscore Davidson by 10 at the charity stripe. This is an even bigger factor at second glance as Stephen Curry fouled out with 1:22 to play and with Davidson trailing by 6. Another thing that jumped out at me about this game is just how bad Curry's teamates were. Curry was his usual 5-11 from beyond the arc, but as a team Davidson was just 9/31, meaning that everyone besides Curry was 4/20. It appears that WMU played a very solid offensive game (like what the Badgers should have done last night) drew contact, and kept it out of Curry's hands. I can't find height stats, but I wonder how he does against taller guards.

3. 79-73 v. Duke

Once again, Davidson was outscored at the Charity Stripe by 9 points, although Duke had an atypically poor night at the line and probably should have won by more. If you look down the stat line, you'll see Davidson winning or very close in every category except 3-point shooting and free throw shooting. This is another game in which Curry was over 50% from behind the arc while the rest of the team was absolutely terrible (4/14). I wonder if Davidson's more recent success has been the result of fewer 3-point shtos by the non-Curry members of the team.

4. 75-68 At Charlotte

These two teams are cross-county rivals, and play this game for the Hornet's Nest Trophy every year. This game was also much close than the final score would indicate as Davdison trailed by only 2 points with just under a minute to play. It's actually pretty tough to tell that Davidson lost this game from raw stats alone. They dominated the glass (49 rebounds to 38) and the offensive glass (15-10), but ultimately it appears that tunrovers and three-pointers did in Davidson, as Curry's teamates once again put up brick after brick (3/20. Ugh.) As I go through the losses, I'm becoming more and more convinced that Davidson probably just reduced the number of 3s being taken by non-Curry members of the team.

5. 75-63 "At" UCLA

This is another "Neutral Site" game that definitely favored UCLA, as it took place in Anaheim. Davidson actually blew an 18-point lead in this game and suffered their third consecutive loss. Curry's game on this evening was very similar to his game against North Carolina, as he was held in check from outside (3/10), but unlike the NC game, Curry was not able to make up for it at the stripe, failing to go to the line. The only reason the game was this close is because the rest of the Davdison crew shot atypically well from outside, hitting 9/17 3s. The free throw disparity was ridiculous as UCLA hit 21 of 30 while Davidson hit 1 of 4. (Again why did the Badgers not pound away inside?) UCLA actually dominated this one after an early scare.

6. 66-65 At NC State

This is the last time that Davidson would lose before running off 25 straight wins. NC State hit a pair of free throws with 3.4 seconds left to eek out a 1 point win. Davidson was once again outrebounded, and couldn't get to the free throw line, but you do see a shift here to more Curry 3-pointers. he was 7/15 while the rest of the team was 4/13, and when you consider that NC State as a team matched the non-Curry Davidson players from outside (4/14) you can see how Davdison made up for their other statistical deficits.

After NC State Davidson went on a tear, destroying their conference in every game. A quick perusal of their NCAA tourney wins shows Curry has been seeing more and more of the teams 3-point tries compared to his teamates. In their early losses Curry was often getting about 1/3 of their total tries, while in their NCAA run he's been getting 50% or more. Against Gonzaga he was an insane 8/10 while the rest of the team was 3/11. Against Georgetown he was a rather pedestrian 5/15, but the rest of the team was a putrid 1/13. (In another reversal of early season trends, Davidson actually won this game at the line, getting there 13 more times than Georgetown and forcing Roy Hibbert to foul out.)

And of course, last night against Wisconsin Curry was 6/11 from behind the arc while everyone else went 6/13.

Basically, Davidson is really tough to beat if they can get Curry 50% or more of their total 3-point shots. The elite teams have managed to shut him down on occasion, but I would have told you that both Georgetown and Wisconsin were elite before the tournament started, especially on the defensive end, and they barely slowed him down. Early in the season Davidson featured a bunch of guys who liked shooting 3s, and all but one of them were terrible. Altering their game to get Curry more shots has probably also resulted in more FT attempts as the rest of the team takes it inside more.

Kansas is very good and will probably beat them, but Curry's shooting can cover up for so many deficits that any let-down at all by Kansas will keep Davidson in it.

Biofuels Kill

2008-03-28T10:04:00.004-05:00

The Biofuel scam is disastrous in every way. Biofuels are expensive, bad for the environment, and the resulting increase in food prices leads to starvation in poorer nations. Here's Michael Grunwald in Time Magazine:

The environmental cost of this cropland creep is now becoming apparent. One groundbreaking new study in Science concluded that when this deforestation effect is taken into account, corn ethanol and soy biodiesel produce about twice the emissions of gasoline. Sugarcane ethanol is much cleaner, and biofuels created from waste products that don't gobble up land have real potential, but even cellulosic ethanol increases overall emissions when its plant source is grown on good cropland. "People don't want to believe renewable fuels could be bad," says the lead author, Tim Searchinger, a Princeton scholar and former Environmental Defense attorney. "But when you realize we're tearing down rain forests that store loads of carbon to grow crops that store much less carbon, it becomes obvious."

Moving along a bit...

There was just one flaw in the calculation: the studies all credited fuel crops for sequestering carbon, but no one checked whether the crops would ultimately replace vegetation and soils that sucked up even more carbon. It was as if the science world assumed biofuels would be grown in parking lots. The deforestation of Indonesia has shown that's not the case. It turns out that the carbon lost when wilderness is razed overwhelms the gains from cleaner-burning fuels. A study by University of Minnesota ecologist David Tilman concluded that it will take more than 400 years of biodiesel use to "pay back" the carbon emitted by directly clearing peat lands to grow palm oil; clearing grasslands to grow corn for ethanol has a payback period of 93 years. The result is that biofuels increase demand for crops, which boosts prices, which drives agricultural expansion, which eats forests. Searchinger's study concluded that overall, corn ethanol has a payback period of about 167 years because of the deforestation it triggers.

Not every kernel of corn diverted to fuel will be replaced. Diversions raise food prices, so the poor will eat less. That's the reason a U.N. food expert recently called agrofuels a "crime against humanity." Lester Brown of the Earth Policy Institute says that biofuels pit the 800 million people with cars against the 800 million people with hunger problems. Four years ago, two University of Minnesota researchers predicted the ranks of the hungry would drop to 625 million by 2025; last year, after adjusting for the inflationary effects of biofuels, they increased their prediction to 1.2 billion.

Make no mistake about it. There is literally no upside to biofuel. If you support biofuel, you support environmental degredation and starvation.

If You Do Not Like Wisconsin Basketball, You Do Not Like Basketball

2008-03-26T21:51:00.003-05:00

Some people find Wisconsin's brand of basketball tough on the eyes. These people are morons.

That's a bit harsh. Wisconsin basketball versus your typical basketball is like Shakespeare v. American Idol.

During a typical NBA game, fans and announcers alike will generally make the following complaints:

1. There is not enough passing.

2. Defense in the NBA is terrible. (Not true, incidentally.)

3. There is too much selfishess.

4. There are too many bad shots.

5. It's just a game of one-on-one.

Wisconsin's entire offense is based on getting the ball to players in space for easy passes. It's not unlike a typical soccer offense actually. The ball will almost always travel into the post at least once. Every player will generally touch the ball on every possession. The Badgers, as a rule, almost never take a bad shot. They tend to get wide-open threes, or points in the paint.

They are also one of, if not the best defensive team in college basketball. They also take care of the ball. Earlier this year the Badgers played an entire 40 minute game in which the committed one turnover.

They play basketball as well as you can. They are the Tim Duncan of college basketball.

Some people are looking for more "entertainment" with their game. They want dunks and cool moves. These are fine things, but they don't help you win basketball games. If you're more interested in seeing Kobe dunk, you may as well turn on some figure skating. Figure skating is all spinning and jumping to no end. It sounds more like what you're looking for.

Leave basketball to those of us who can appreciate it.

Why politicians are lying hypocrites

2008-03-26T21:39:00.003-05:00

Frankly, it's your fault. Obama has a racist moron for a pastor because, at least for awhile, many of his supporters wanted him to have a racist moron for a pastor. I doubt that Obama is himself a racist moron, which opens him up to charges of being a hypocrite who attended a church led by a racist moron. Just remember, Obama is doing this because you, or someone you know, wanted him to do it.

Obama had the same problem with NAFTA. His economic advisor, Austen Goolsbee, apparently told Canada that Obama didn't really mean all of his anti-NAFTA rhetoric. You see, NAFTA is good for the US, but it's not good for a bunch of Obama's supporters. Well, actually it is in the long term, but they're too stupid to know it. Anyway, Obama apparently believes in free trade but but thinks that you are too stupid to understand free trade. Hence, he's a hypocrite again.

John McCain has done the same thing with abortion. At least that's what conservatives tell me.

So don't be too hard on them. They're just giving the people what they want.

Always remember that in a democracy, it's your fault.

The Flight Of The Conchords

2008-03-26T21:32:00.002-05:00

It's not for everyone, but it's pretty damn good. The Flight's biggest problem is that many of the jokes don't make sense for a few episodes, so you have to stick with it for awhile. And it helps if you like They Might Be Giants. Here's one of their musical numbers:

The show is about the two man band's attempts to make it big in New York, but they are rarely seen playing in the show. Instead their songs are woven into the plot, sometimes as inner monologue, but sometimes as actual plot action, as with this touching love song:

It's certainly worth a Netflix rental. I recommend a beer or two first.

Winter's Tale, by Mark Helprin

2008-03-18T22:48:00.002-05:00

I had two favorite books. They are Neal Stephenson's Cryptonomicon, and Michael Chabon's Wonder Boys. I now have a third.

I can't really do it justice. I'm not sure I want to try. Helprin is a brilliant writer. This is a first-rate modern fairy tale. It features one of the most well-developed characters in literature in Peter Lake. The supporting characters are nearly as familiar. After you finish, you feel you've lost friends. This is the sure signal of complete character development. Even the horse will probably draw a tear from a few of you.

Having me describe the plot would be pointless. The simplest model of the universe is the universe. So it is with this book. It is not short, but don't be intimidated. It's worth it. It is a book that I am almost sure to read again.

No Country For Old Men, by Cormac McCarthy

2008-03-18T22:31:00.003-05:00

I've not seen the movie. This is just the book.

This is a hard book to talk about without giving away important details. I'll do my best. But you might want to skip it.

Let's talk about Chigurh. He's the fella in the movie with the funny hair. For just over half of the book, Chigurh is merely an assassin. He is a particularly invincible, psychopathic assassin, but that's basically it. At one point, however, Chigurh is shown to be more. He's not just a killer, he's a force of nature. He's inevitable.

Ed Tom Bell is the sheriff, charged more with cleaning up this mess than solving it. He's the opposite of Captain Ahab. He knows the white whale is out there, but that it's best to stay away. Bell is truly the main character. He watches, he tries to help, but there's really not much he can do.

Moss is the one he's watching. He's over his head, he just doesn't know how much. He's found some ill-gotten money, and he's on the run.

But let's get back to Chigurh. Chigurh is the law. What he says he does, no matter what. Several times he has no reason to kill, other than a prior commitment. It would be easier for him to walk away. Chigurh never goes back on a commitment. Not ever, not for any reason.

It's super violent and totally unpredictable, but I'm guessing it sheds some light on what I hear is a strange ending in the movie. So far, it's the second best book I've read this year.

Just Missed It

2008-03-14T20:11:00.002-05:00

Every day I take a train home from work, and every day I just barely miss one as I pull up to the train stop. I used to chalk this up to bad luck, but recently I had an epiphany. I don't have especially bad luck. The reason that i miss so many trains is because there are so many trains to miss. Trains run pretty frequently (about every 7 minutes) and I can see the train stop for about two minutes while my bus pulls in. That means that It's very likely that I see a train pulling away.

I barely miss trains because I'm well-served by trains.

Contrast that with my bus. Rarely do I ever "just miss" a bus. Usually when I arrive at my bus stop, there are 20 other people already waiting. I used to think that this indicated that a bus would be here soon. What it actually tells you is that there are not enough buses. The bus shows up about every 20 minutes or so, but what actually happens is that two buses show up every 40 minutes or so. Unfortunately, "bus clumping" plagues almost every public transportation system.

So if you feel down because you feel like you're always missing something, don't worry. You are probably not expecially unlucky. It's more likely that you're being adequately served.

Eliot Spitzer apparently pays for Babette Swallows

2008-03-11T08:19:00.003-05:00

And not only is he soliciting prostitutes, he's also cavorting with know tax cheats.

For shame.

How Voltron And The Cold War Unfairly Tarnish Favre's Legacy

2008-03-04T17:04:00.000-06:00

Already today, people are talking about Favre's Super Bowls compared to other great quarterbacks. This may be the stupidest concept in all of sports.

The Super Bowl is just one game, and it's a weird game. It generally takes place after a bye for both teams, it's slower than a normal game, it's always against quality competition, halftime is extra long, etc. Plus, it's just one game! The Super Bowl is probably more subject to randomness than any other football game.

Judging any player based on how they performed in one game (or a handful of games) is idiotic. Ignoring how they played in that game and judging them solely by whether their team won or lost is even more idiotic, yet this is how the majority of people judge quarterbacks.

I blame Voltron.

If you've ever watched Voltron, you know how this goes. A big monster attacks the castle, the Voltron team tries to attack the monster with their stupid robot lions, which doesn't work. Then they form Voltron and try to punch it and shoot fire at it, which also doesn't work. Then, when all else has failed, they whip out the Blazing Sword, which always works. In Voltron-land, Voltron has the magical power to "play better" if you will, when it's all on the line. You see this paradigm recur in many children's action programs.

Of course, if you were a smart little kid like I was you spend most of an episode of Voltron yelling at them to just form the Blazing Sword already instead of dicking around with this other stuff. Then you get grounded for saying "dicking."

Anyway, Voltron is probably the Cold War's fault. The Blazing Sword is clearly a symbol of the atomic bomb, which is all powerful, but only useful in the most dire of situations. There is a good reason to not use the atomic bomb, as the collateral damage is massive, however this translates poorly into children's cartoons. You have to be able to use the big weapon for the show to be exciting, but you also can't use it right away, or the show will be boring and short.

So you end up with the Blazing Sword.

Unfortunately, this mentality of being able to summon up extra powers in dire situations seems to transfer over to sports analysis. We believe that great players should become magically brilliant when the game is on the line, and when the game is especially important.

Unfortunately, here in the real world, magical powers do not exist.

During an NFL season, every game is your most important game until you have clinched something. Players have to be at their best as much as they possibly can. It is a sad fact of human nature that we sometimes have let downs, but we do, and we really can't do much to control when they happen.

People are already making the "Elway was better: 2 Super Bowls to 1" argument. You know how much I hate that argument. The fact is that Favre played great against the Broncos in the Super Bowl, far better than Elway played, especially considering that Elway possessed a better RB and a superior corps of WRs/TEs. Yet Elway will always win with the Pundits, 2 to 1. That's so idiotic. Marino, Kelly, Tarkenton, they all get hit the same way. Kelly basically is considered an inferior QB because Scott Norwood missed a field goal. I heard Mike Wilbon on the radio the other day say that Ben Roethlisberger is the 3rd best QB in the league based on his Super Bowl win. Ben Roethlisberger's Super Bowl performance was one of the worst in Super Bowl History. That he won is a testament to the talents of the rest of his team.

The fact is that Favre was frickin' awesome. You can compare him to other great QBs in a bunch of different ways; in some he will appear better, and in others he will appear worse.

But if anyone reading this attempts to make any kind of Voltron argument to me, I'm just going to snap.

Long live the good ol' boy; the finest QB in Packer history, the toughest QB in NFL history, and a better QB than John fucking Elway.

Happy Casimir Pulaski Day

2008-03-03T15:35:00.002-06:00

Some of Chicago is off today for this weird Polish holiday.

Here's the Sufjan Stevens song "Casimir Pulaski Day" off of the Illinois album:

So head home and have a Tyskie.

The Subprime Crisis Graphic Novel

2008-03-03T13:33:00.000-06:00

Enjoy!

Quote of the Day

2008-02-27T16:59:00.000-06:00

“Marijuana never kicks down your door in the middle of the night. Marijuana never locks up sick and dying people, does not suppress medical research, does not peek in bedroom windows. Even if one takes every reefer madness allegation of the prohibitionists at face value, marijuana prohibition has done far more harm to far more people than marijuana ever could.”

–William F. Buckley, Jr.

(H/T, Balko)

I'd like to make a deposit...

2008-02-27T15:26:00.001-06:00

On my way home from work, right around the Montrose Blue Line stop, there is a billboard for Midwest bank. Every time I see this billboard, I'm amazed. The reason that I'm amazed is that I think this billboard is kind of dirty, and I think it's kind of dirty on purpose. This is what it looks like:

I'm not crazy, right?

Vouchers Work

2008-02-18T12:59:00.003-06:00

From Alex Tabarrok:

Thus, this paper shows two things. First, that the test scores of the students in the public schools improved when vouchers gave the schools better incentives to perform. Second, at least some of the improvement comes from changes in how students are taught. The author's note, for example:

...we find that schools receiving an “F” grade are more likely to focus on low-performing students, lengthen the amount of time devoted to instruction, adopt different ways to organize the day and learning environment of the students and teachers, increase resources available to teachers...

It is not true that "nothing can be done to improve the schools." Incentives matter.

Quote of the Day: Fred Dooley

2008-02-18T12:30:00.004-06:00

"You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means."

- Inigo Montoya

Occasionally I pick on Fred Dooley, who writes the poorly titled Real Debate Wisconsin blog. In reality there is very little debate that goes on there, and Fred has a nasty habit of banning those who offer contrary opinions. However, because of his stubbornes, picking on him can be entertaining as he will never, ever change his mind to the point of absurdity.

Anyway, Fred can be counted on to parrot the conservative talking points of the day, and last Friday, he wrote this:

Obama spoke in Milwaukee just after the Virginia Tech shootings...

Now he is in Milwaukee just after the tragedy at NIU yesterday...

Karma...

I know what Fred was trying for here. He was probably not trying to say that Obama causes mass shootings. He was probably trying to be glib and funny. Unfortunately, it's pretty obvious that he does not know what the word "Karma" means.

kar·ma /ˈkɑrmə/ Pronunciation Key - Show Spelled Pronunciation[kahr-muh] Pronunciation Key - Show IPA Pronunciation
–noun 1. Hinduism, Buddhism. action, seen as bringing upon oneself inevitable results, good or bad, either in this life or in a reincarnation: in Hinduism one of the means of reaching Brahman. Compare bhakti (def. 1), jnana.
2. Theosophy. the cosmic principle according to which each person is rewarded or punished in one incarnation according to that person's deeds in the previous incarnation.
3. fate; destiny.
4. the good or bad emanations felt to be generated by someone or something.

You see Fred, Karma implies causation. I know that you did not mean to write that Obama caused mass killings, but that's what you did. Also, making light of mass killings is not funny.

I attempted to correct Fred on this point as I would not want such a sound-bite appearing on my blog (unless I was quoting someone else, of course), but he would have none of it.

So maybe Fred does think that Obama causes mass killings.

Are My Friends Married: Update

2008-02-16T11:40:00.002-06:00

If you have read this blog for awhile, you may remember the story of my friends Jay and Jen, who were married by their uncle, a minister who was ordained over the internet. Their marriage was put into legal limbo by a stupid Pennsylvania law (and an even worse court ruling) that requires your church to have a brick-and-mortar facility in the state. For a recap, click here.

Jay and Jen are not taking this lying down, and with the help of the ACLU they're taking their case to court:

The ACLU filed the first three lawsuits in a planned statewide effort to address what they contend is a flaw in the state marriage law.

"What we want is to fix a problem that never should have existed in the first place," ACLU attorney Mary Catherine Roper said. "The state has no business invalidating marriages just because it doesn?t like the kind of minister who officiated them."

The couples in the three ACLU lawsuits - including the O'Neills, who filed in Bucks County, are seeking judicial declarations that their marriages are valid under state law.

"For a judge to retroactively decide ... that our marriage is no longer valid seems unfair and hurtful for both of us," said Ryan Hancock, who was married to his wife, Melanie, in 2005 by a friend who was a Universal Life Church minister.

I wish Jay and Jen the best of luck in this case. The state has no business telling its citizens what is and is not a legitimate church. Think about all of the problems something like this could cause. Most of your major purchases after you are married are performed as a couple. You buy a house together, insurance together, and you might have a will which refers to your "wife" or "husband." Declaring that a group of people are not married after the fact throws all of these major transactions into a gray area. Taking care of the problem is stressful, and expensive.

If they eventually triumph in their case, it will not just be a victory for them. They will also be performing a public service.

Good luck, Jay and Jen.

It was probably trying to kethcup.

2008-02-16T11:30:00.003-06:00

It's funny enough that the Wienermobile was recently in an accident, but this bit of crack journalism by George Osgood kicks it up a notch.

Ken Tremendous Is My Hero

2008-02-06T15:51:00.001-06:00

One of my favorite websites is FireJoeMorgan.com. And one of my favortie shows is The Office. Today, the FJM crew revealed their true identities, and Ken Tremendous is actually a writer named Michael Schur who writes for The Office, is married to Regis Philbin's daughter, and plays Dwight Schrute's cousin Mose on The Office.

Ken, you're my hero.

And Junior writes for South Park. Talented bunch.

Quote Of The Day, Part 2

2008-02-02T19:04:00.000-06:00

"In The Brothers Karamazov, Alyosha expresses the idea which panicked Dostoyevski more than any other: Without God, 'everything is lawful'. But as Mohammed Atta can explain, the opposite is true. Without God, murder is forbidden by human law; it is only for those acting on behalf of God, that everything is permitted."

-- Jonathan Wallace

(Hat tip, Overcoming Bias)

Quote Of The Day

2008-02-02T18:53:00.000-06:00

"Well," Rowlands said carefully, turning the Land-Rover into the road. "I am not at all sure what it is that is going on all around us, Will bach, or where it is leading. But those men who know anything at all about the Light also know that there is a fierceness to its power, like the bare sword of the law, or the white burning of the sun." Suddenly his voice sounded to Will very strong, and very Welsh. "At the very heart, that is. Other things, like humanity, and mercy, and charity, that most good men hold more precious than all else, they do not come first for the Light. Oh, sometimes they are there; often, indeed. But in the very long run the concern of you people is with the absolute good, ahead of all else. You are like fanatics. Your masters, at any rate. Like the old Crusaders -- oh, like certain groups in every belief, though this is not a matter of religion, of course. At the centre of the Light there is a cold white flame, just as at the centre of the Dark there is a great black pit bottomless as the Universe."

His warm, deep voice ended, and there was only the roar of the engine. Will looked out over the grey-misted fields, silent.

"There was a great long speech, now," John Rowlands said awkwardly. "But I was only saying, be careful not to forget that there are people in this valley who can be hurt, even in the pursuit of good ends."

Will heard again in his mind Bran's anguished cry as the dog Cafall was shot dead, and heard his cold dismissal: go away, go away... And for a second another image, unexpected, flashed into his mind out of the past: the strong, bony face of Merriman his master, first of the Old Ones, cold in judgment of a much-loved figure who, through the frailty of being no more than a man, had once betrayed the cause of the Light.

He sighed. "I understand what you are saying," he said sadly. "But you misjudge us, because you are a man yourself. For us, there is only the destiny. Like a job to be done. We are here simply to save the world from the Dark. Make no mistake, John, the Dark is rising, and will take the world to itself very soon if nothing stands in its way. And if that should happen, then there would be no question ever, for anyone, either of warm charity or of cold absolute good, because nothing would exist in the world or in the hearts of men except that bottomless black pit. The charity and the mercy and the humanitarianism are for you, they are the only things by which men are able to exist together in peace. But in this hard case that we the Light are in, confronting the Dark, we can make no use of them. We are fighting a war. We are fighting for life or death -- not for our life, remember, since we cannot die. For yours."

He reached his hand behind him, over the back of the seat, and Pen licked it with his floppy wet tongue.

"Sometimes," Will said slowly, "in this sort of a war, it is not possible to pause, to smooth the way for one human being, because even that one small thing could mean an end of the world for all the rest."

A fine rain began to mist the windscreen. John Rowlands turned on the wipers, peering forward at the grey world as he drove. He said, "It is a cold world you live in, bachgen. I do not think so far ahead, myself. I would take the one human being over all the principle, all the time."

Will slumped down low in his seat, curling into a ball, pulling up his knees. "Oh, so would I," he said sadly. "So would I, if I could. It would feel a lot better inside me. But it wouldn't work."

-- Susan Cooper, The Grey King

(Hat tip, Overcoming Bias)

Why would you vote for any of these people?

2008-02-02T18:07:00.000-06:00

Politicians should be viewed with suspicion because they spend millions of dollars of donor money gathering the power to spend millions of dollars of your money. And telling you to thank them for the privilege. Ergo, most politicians are evil.

Some are just stupid. Mike Huckabee is apparently stupid. And evil.

Mitt Romney belongs to a crazy religion. If you ask him the famous "boxers or briefs?" question, he would have to reply that he is wearing crazy Mormon underwear. His favorite book is the product of an even crazier religion. He is also a conservative who would probably expand government health care at great cost. Weirdo.

John McCain sponsored one of the most unconstitutional pieces of garbage ever to emerge from the Senate. I will not forgive him for this. Here's a fun quote:

"I work in Washington and I know that money corrupts. And I and a lot of other people were trying to stop that corruption. Obviously, from what we've been seeing lately, we didn't complete the job. But I would rather have a clean government than one where quote First Amendment rights are being respected that has become corrupt. If I had my choice, I'd rather have the clean government."

Nothing cleans up government like silencing opposing views.

My problem with Democrats is that they always stick their noses where they don't belong. They're bossy, they tend to be economic illiterates, and they smell bad. Well, that's just Teddy but if he hangs out with you long enough it starts to spread. With Hillary, I am worried about draconian environmental laws. I'm an environmentalist, but if the government gets involved I suspect that they will overreact.

I don't know much about Obama, except that he wants change. Well, I also know this, and this.

If I seem softer on the Democrats it is only out of ignorance. There has been the usual empty rhetoric spewing forth from both candidates. As far as I can tell they are both in favor of lower taxes, higher taxes, lower spending, higher spending, more freedom, and more government intrusions.

I do not believe that any of these people are as qualified as I am to be president. Why should I vote for any of them? I can't see any of them on TV without either cringing or laughing.

I'll probably go with my brother's old method of selling his vote for beer.

Fun Friday: Movie Review

2008-02-01T16:27:00.000-06:00

Writing in Slate, Josh Levin just eviscerates the multitude of recently released, idiotic parody movies. Meet The Spartans was #1 at the box office last week. This cannot stand. I will give you a few choice excerpts:

Isn't it massive consumer fraud to charge $10.50 for a barely hour-long movie? Perhaps, but it would've been unforgivable to make Meet the Spartans any longer than an hour. This was the worst movie I've ever seen, so bad that I hesitate to label it a "movie" and thus reflect shame upon the entire medium of film. Friedberg and Seltzer do not practice the same craft as P.T. Anderson, David Cronenberg, Michael Bay, Kevin Costner, the Zucker Brothers, the Wayans Brothers, Uwe Boll, any dad who takes shaky home movies on a camping trip, or a bear who turns on a video camera by accident while trying to eat it.

Moving ahead a bit...

In Meet the Spartans, the mere act of referring to Transformers, Happy Feet, Spider-Man 3, Ghost Rider, Rocky Balboa, Stomp the Yard, Shrek, Lindsay Lohan, Kevin Federline, or Deal or No Deal is presumed to be hilarious. (If you'll indulge me for a second, I will pause to crack up Friedberg and Seltzer: "Paris Hilton.")

Enjoy.

Chicago Tribune Advice

2008-01-31T08:48:00.000-06:00

The Chicago Tribune has some advice for those who will be watching the Super Bowl on Sunday:

Don't stop taking heart medication on game day.

Yes, you know that medicine that you take so that you don't die? You can't stop taking it just because there will be a football game on TV.

You also still need to wear a seatbelt, use condoms, and breathe.

George W. Bush, Tax Raiser

2008-01-26T09:49:00.000-06:00

It is gospel among conservatives that "the Bush tax cuts stimulated the economy." The problem is that the President has actually raised our taxes quite a bit. Here's Russ Roberts at Cafe Hayek:

Government's share of the pie has grown dramatically under Bush II. You can argue it was worthwhile. You can argue that he had no choice. (I think you'd be wrong on both counts, but never mind.) But you can't argue that Bush has cut our taxes. Our taxes are higher and they've been shifted into the future via debt.

Notice also that government's share fell during the Clinton years. Yes, I know that's partly because of the Republican Congress. Partly. But it reinforces my view that partisanship is overrated.

George Bush likes to say that he gave us back "our" money because we could spend it more wisely. While I agree with the premise, it was an illusion. There weren't any tax cuts in 2001, 2002 and 2003 that supposedly stimulated the economy or that let us spend the money more wisely than the government. The government spent more of our money, not less.

Roberts has numbers to back up his claim.

Will Tax Rebates Stimulate The Economy?

2008-01-26T09:24:00.000-06:00

Probably not.

To understand why we have to think about incentives. This tax rebate is being proposed in an attempt to turn around a slowing economy. (Or, if you're more cynical, because it is an election year.) By giving out this tax rebate, the government is acknowledging that it is concerned about the state of the economy. Your average Joe will probably agree, having been berated about stagnant wages, health care costs, inflation, and the "sub-prime crisis." (Note, by the way, that tax cuts alone do not cause inflation as those dollars were backed by production when they were earned. Tax cuts can, however, lead to inflation. We'll get to that in a bit.)

Since we're dealing with macro here, let's stipulate that people will act rationally, in their own self interest. People have been told that the economy is bad, and the government believes this so much that they actually sent out a check. People also are at least vaguely aware that government spending has skyrocketed under this administration, and that the size of the debt has skyrocketed along with it.

You are essentially telling people that unemployment might go up. This is an incentive to save. Since this tax cut will increase the size of the deficit, you are telling them that there will either be a tax increase or inflation in the future, as these are the only two means available to the government to pay back their debts. This is an incentive to save. Actions like this make people nervous, and when people are nervous, they buy fewer plasma TVs. They do not stimulate the economy.

The government claims that it wants people to spend this rebate to stimulate the economy, however, the government has created incentives for people to save this money. There is nothing wrong with saving, of course, but saving is unlikely to have the desired effect.

For the record, I am not against tax cutting, however, if the government does not cut a corresponding chunk of spending, a tax cut is simply a deferred tax increase. George W. Bush has increased taxes more than almost any other president. He is simply going to leave the messy bit to one of his successors.

Fun Friday: Bo Dances

2008-01-25T10:49:00.001-06:00

A Loving Tribute To A Shitty Grocery Store

2008-01-21T08:42:00.000-06:00

Today the Chicago Tribune eulogized the Hyde Park Co-op Grocery store. They talk all about the "ideals' embodied by the grocery store, as if you should care about the politics of the place where you buy food. (And as if "ideals" could overcome a complete lack of fresh produce, slow service, and high prices.) This needs to be taken apart line by line:

To the beat of a snare drum and blaring horns, the Hyde Park Co-op was laid to rest Sunday beside the dream that gave it birth 75 years ago.

A grocery store more likely opens than closes with a fanfare. But this one, a longtime linchpin of the Hyde Park neighborhood, was a supermarket of ideas no less than canned goods.

I lived in Hyde Park for two years and the Co-op was the only grocery store in the neighborhood. They enjoyed a virtual monopoly because of the harsh zoning and licensing requirements in force in the area, and no store would have benefited more from a bit of competition. The only thing I would disagree with in these first two paragraphs is that while their canned good selection was lacking in variety and quality, and was overpriced, the ideals of the co-op were still much much worse.

"We're here to celebrate the life of the co-op," said Winston Kennedy, 81, addressing several hundred former customers and shareholders who assembled in the produce department a few hours before its doors closed for good. A group of musicians had just played "Just a Closer Walk with Thee," the traditional anthem of a New Orleans jazz funeral.

I sort of understand when people get upset about historic buildings closing down, but the neighborhood's affection for the co-op is baffling. Did I mention that in addition to being poorly run that the place is also ugly? And dirty inside?

Former 5th Ward Ald. Leon Despres, a founding member, recalled how the co-op was founded during the Great Depression from a vision that a better society could be built from the bottom up. It would not only sell groceries, but also spread the word that cooperation between human beings was better than cutthroat competition. It stood for honesty in an age of shady business practices.

Mr. Despres is probably at least partially responsible for the co-op's protected status in the neighborhood as he is clearly against competition. Ironically, the Co-op is a terrific lesson in what happens when businesses do not face any competition. Despite being a lousy grocery store, the co-op did enjoy a monopoly, and was generally very crowded. They also charged high prices for inferior goods. The place should have been a gold-mine, however, the store ended up millions of dollars in debt somehow.

But I'm sure that shady business practices had nothing to do with it.

"The co-op took the butcher's hand off the scale," said Despres, 99.

Here we have the notion that no member of a co-op would ever try and cheat anyone because being in a cooperative situation magically changes human nature so that we're all altruistic Care Bears.

Have you been to a deli at a major grocery store lately? You will notice that the scales that they use to measure your meat and cheese are actually on top of the display cases in plain site of all of the customers. This is done to ensure that the customer knows that he is not being cheated because if your local Jewel is cheating you, or even if you just think it is cheating you, you can go to the Dominick's, or Whole Foods, or Cub, or Treasure Island, or Trader Joe's, or one of the other stores that exists in areas that allow competition.

If the butcher had his thumb on the scale at the co-op, you didn't have much of a choice in the matter. But I'm sure he would never do anything like that because he's probably a nice guy.

Yet some in the neighborhood believed the store's quality had slipped badly in recent years, despite a new manager brought in to update the offerings.

These people are correct. Most of the produce was bruised, rotting, or misshapen. The Co-op was on the University of Chicago campus, and yet was always out of Diet Coke. They did not have much variety of any product. Buying beer or liquor required a trip to a separate, downstairs store (which is not the case at any Chicago grocery chain). Their parking lot was too small. The workers were not helpful, and generally surly. One of their baggers smelled like he had not showered in months.

To casual shoppers, the Hyde Park Co-op would seem no different from any other supermarket. But to members, it was an enterprise of which they were the owners. A small fee entitled them an annual rebate for purchases made. Profits went to member-owners as dividends.

The first sentence in this paragraph is a complete lie. Even very basic chain grocery stores are far more pleasant than the Co-op.

Joining the Co-op entailed that you pay a small fee. I do not remember what the fee was, but I remember thinking that it was surprisingly high. I do remember that most of the "special deals" that you were entitled to as a member involved large quantities of bad produce that you could not possibly eat before they spoiled. Membership paid no better than a typical grocery store's "savings card" program, none of which charge you any money to join. Because that would be an insane business practice.

But you got dividends, right? Well, keep in mind that the store is closing because it was millions of dollars in debt.

Decisions were made by a show of hands rather than by officials at some distant corporate headquarters -- a form of neighborhood democracy that inspired loyalty to the very end.

As it turns out, skilled people with advanced degrees sitting in distant board rooms are better at running a grocery store than random neighborhood locals.

Who knew?

Most of the musicians who played Sunday were paid professionals. But bassist Andrew Basa, who lives nearby, brought his bass fiddle to join in.

"I loved the co-op and hate to see it go," said Basa, whose wife, Rhea, also played a few choruses on her violin.

The co-op traced its ideological roots to 19th Century England, where textile workers opened their own commissary as an alternative to the factory owners' company stores. From there, the cooperative movement spread to the U.S.

The first co-ops existed to provide competition to the company store. This co-op existed free from competition. It was the company store.

Kale Williams told the crowd how it was natural for him to become a Hyde Park Co-op member when he came to Chicago in 1966.

"I grew up in rural Kansas, where farmers joined together in grain cooperatives," said Williams, 82.

In the last few months, however, as the co-op reached the end of its days, the membership's discussions were acrimonious. To the very end, some thought the institution could be saved. Others thought the red ink on its books insoluble.

Notice how the supporters never mention any actual good qualities of the store itself. They just focus on the cooperative aspect and how it reminds them of old times.

If you're a curious sort you are probably wondering how a monopoly with high prices and low quality merchandise managed to get itself into so much debt. Well...

In recent years, some customers were turned away by the store's appearance. There were complaints about product quality.

Its decline was quickened by the corporate giantism it was founded to combat. It opened a satellite store on 47th Street in Kenwood, a neighborhood once in decline but gentrifying.

Just so you have some perspective on this, the Co-op sits on the corner of 55th St. and Lake Park Ave. It opened another, full grocery store on the corner of 47th and Lake Park Ave.

That's right, they opened another store just 8 blocks away. They paid all new rent. They hired all new butchers, cashiers, managers, and security. They, at the very least, doubled their operating costs. And who did they compete with by doing this?

THEMSELVES!

They cut into their own market share. They stole their own business. And they doubled their cost to do it. Brilliant. And somehow the paper blames this move on "corporate giantism" as if a real grocery store would ever open a new store next to one of their old stores.

But the timing was off.

Yes, you don't want to open a store 8 blocks away from your other store too soon.

Opening before there was a local constituency for its peculiar blend of upscale products and social vision, it failed, leaving the parent co-op stuck with a million-dollar lease.

To be fair to the 47th street Co-op, it was much more pleasant than the 55th street
Co-op, but I still wouldn't describe their offerings as upscale. They had, mostly, the same inferior products. But apparently the store only failed because a bunch of progressive-minded people did not move into Kenwood en masse. I can't believe that business model did not pan out.

Members finally voted to accept an offer from the University of Chicago, landlord for the original store, to pick up most of the co-op's debt. The space will soon be occupied by Treasure Island, a supermarket chain with branches in trendy neighborhoods.

I have a Treasure Island near me. It is not my favorite grocery store, but it is a good store. It is a bit upscale, however the Co-op was so overpriced that I suspect Treasure Island will actually be cheaper for most shoppers. Treasure Island has a very nice deli, fairly good produce, and an international section to rival any specialty store. It describes itself as a "European style" grocery store, and that is probably about right. It will be a major, major upgrade over the Co-op.

Yet even at the end, some in Sunday's crowd couldn't accept the co-op's demise.

"I hate to see them leave," said Dorothy Horton, 83. "Do you think they will ever open again?"

You people are insane. Honestly, who gets nostalgic for a grocery store?

Good riddance. This is creative destruction at its finest.

Chicago Transit Doomsday, Part 4,004,876

2008-01-18T08:38:00.000-06:00

We recently had another CTA (Chicago Transit Authority) doomsday. This happens about twice a year. During a doomsday, the trains and buses of Chicago make announcements every 30 seconds or so at a very high volume telling you that on x date (x = January 20th, in this case), if they do not get more state funding, y routes will be cut (in this case, y = 81), and fares will go up.

Eventually, the state always caves, but it's always just a band-aid, and we get another doomsday in a few months.

This time, the state and the CTA have allegedly found a permanent funding solution, and this is where he story gets interesting.

It will not shock you to learn that, rather than cut costs and fire a few Strogers, they chose to raise taxes:

The measure solves public transit funding for now, with a price tag of $530 million. On April 1, the sales tax will increase by a quarter-cent per dollar in Cook County and twice that in the suburbs. And Chicagoans are expected to face higher taxes on home sales.

The Governor of Illinois is Rod Blagojevich (pronounced Bla-goy-a-vich), and when he ran for reelection recently he pledged to not raise taxes. As he chose to break that promise and raise taxes to fund the CTA, he felt that it was necessary to do something else to distract from his promise-breaking ways.

Now, what could you do to deflect criticism...let's see. I know! Old people! Do you like old people? I know that I like old people. I know! Let's give old people free rides on the CTA! Everyone will like that!

The final votes came after Blagojevich, seeking to beat back the political fallout from breaking his long-held vow to veto a sales-tax increase, added a provision offering seniors free rides. The change nearly derailed the legislation over concerns that other deserving groups, such as the disabled, should get the same perk, and that rich seniors shouldn't qualify.

"All's well that ends well," Blagojevich said. "I think the wait was well worth it because the result is very, I think, significant for the people in the Chicagoland area as well as for our senior citizens all across Illinois who are going to see an improvement in their quality of life."

Rod has been appearing with an entourage of old people everywhere he goes. This is probably some of the worst pandering I've ever seen. He basically is trying to bribe his voters with a policy that has to make the size of the tax increase - which is the reaon for the bribe - bigger. Nice. Well played.

As the old saying goes, when you rob Peter to pay Paul, you can always count on the support of Paul. Of course, the baby-boom generation will shortly be retiring and entering the age where they can ride CTA for free because of this act of political cowardice. At that point, they will face a true CTA doomsday.

Lambeau Pics

2008-01-16T10:26:00.000-06:00

Three friends and I were forunate enough to go to the Packer-Seahawk game on Saturday. Here are a few pics.

Quote Of The Day

2008-01-16T09:44:00.000-06:00

From Mike Huckabee:

I have opponents in this race who do not want to change the Constitution," Huckabee told a Michigan audience on Monday. "But I believe it's a lot easier to change the Constitution than it would be to change the word of the living god. And that's what we need to do -- to amend the Constitution so it's in God's standards rather than try to change God's standards so it lines up with some contemporary view.

Hurray for theocracy!

Hat tip, Ed Brayton.

Hanker For A Hunk Of Cheese

2008-01-15T12:42:00.000-06:00

Remember the good old days when, instead of addressing the dangers of smoking or drugs, public service announcements sought to raise cheese awareness?

Good times. And the lesson really stuck with me.

Update: Take a look at the comments section, where Mitch has left an outstanding link.

Fun Friday

2008-01-11T08:16:00.000-06:00

I was playing a board game last night called Sequence, by Jax Games. On the side of the Sequence box is a list of all of the games made by Jax. This one cracked me up.

Some of these games just aren't very creative.

And this one seems a bit totalitarian.

Who will win the nominations?

2008-01-04T14:36:00.000-06:00

It doesn't matter.

Fun Friday: Tecmo Bowl

2008-01-04T14:34:00.000-06:00

If you want to know who will win in the NFL Playoffs this weekend, just click here.

Paul Proves Deism

2008-01-04T14:09:00.001-06:00

Disclaimer: The following is an exercise in philosotainment, and does not in any way reflect the beliefs of the author. It is also filled with logical errors. Mainly he just thought he was being clever.

Deism is the idea that something created the universe, set the rules, and then retired to Florida. The odds are that Deism is true. Why?

Moore's Law states that computer processing power is increasing exponentially, doubling roughly every two years. It is the reason that the computer you are reading this on became obsolete recently. It also means that there is no end in sight as to what we can accomplish with computers.

Currently we have interactive online games like Second Life and Everquest. These on-line worlds are so sophisticated that they even have their own money and real estate (which is worth "real" money). These worlds will only become more sophisticated as time goes on.

We will also eventually create computers which pass the "Turing Test," that is, computers that are indistinguishable from humans.

So, eventually we will be able to create intelligent life, as well as other worlds for that life to exist in. Assuming that we can eventually find a cheap source of renewable energy (solar would be ideal) there is no practical limit to the number of fake worlds and fake people that we could create.

Ergo, for every one real world there are an infinite number of fake worlds that are likely to be created. Moreover, the creation and operation of these fake worlds is likely to fit the definition of "Deist."

So, for any given person, it is almost a certainty (infinity/1) that you exist in a fake computer generated world, and should therefore, be a Deist.

Mormons Really Are Nice People

2008-01-04T13:29:00.000-06:00

Earlier today I was approached by a few Latter Day Saints who attempted to convert me. I really enjoy this. As an added bonus, I'm currently reading Jon Krakauer's "Under the Banner of Heaven."

I wasn't mean or dismissive, but I did ask if they had read the book, and to my surprise, they had. I asked them if they had any criticisms.

One of them said that it was actually fairly accurate, but that in his experience people are unwilling to separate the true LDS church from the splinter groups which are really the focus of the book. He said there were inflammatory parts, but that you could write such a book about almost any religion, and that he was not surprised or offended that such a thing had been written about Mormonism.

I was impressed by their maturity. Most people get angry when their core beliefs are challenged, but they both just accepted that this would happen as a fact of life.

I wonder how deeply Mormons really believe their own religion, or if they're just in it for the routine.

There is a part of Neal Stephenson's "Cryptonomicon" where one of the Waterhouse's (Randy, I believe) is reflecting on the religiosity of a couple he knows. (I would find the exact quote, but it's a really long book.) He doesn't personally subscribe to believing things without evidence, however he admires the way in which religion functions in their lives. There are certain things that you just know because of your religion, and you act accordingly. These things are right, these things are wrong, you go to church on Sunday. Randy equates this to an operating system. It's a bunch of rules that takes some of the work and worry out of life, just as an operating system saves people from having to deal with all of those pesky ones and zeros. (Incidentally, this idea leads to more disastrous results in his cyber-punk novel "Snow Crash.")

I suspect that Mormonism's appeal lies more in its functionality than it's mythology. It must be, as it is easy to find flaws in its mythology. I wonder which religions have the most "functional" appeal and which have the most "story" appeal.

I Am Legend For The Wrong Reasons

2007-12-28T14:17:00.000-06:00

At what point do you cross the line from "modern interpretation" into "completely new story?"

I saw the Will Smith film "I Am Legend" last night, and I'm not sure how the acting, cinematography, etc., were because I kept focusing on just how much the plot, and more importantly, the resolution, stray from their source material. Without spoiling the movie for everyone, the differences between Richard Matheson's 1954 novel and the movie are strong enough that the title means something completely different in the book than it does in the movie, and this difference is sort of the whole point.

While both are to some extent zombie stories the zombies of the book are sentient beings, while the movie zombies are mindless rampaging monsters. The movie feels like an expensive knock-off of the updated "Dawn of the Dead." The book version of "I Am Legend" has much more in common with something like "Planet of the Apes" than it has with your classic zombie movie.

If you don't mind spoilers, the Wikipedia entries (book, movie) will make everything clear.

Don't even get me started on The Omega Man.

French Seeing

2007-12-28T14:14:00.000-06:00

Soon, blind people may be able to see with their tongues:

Last October, she saw a candle flame for the first time. She was stunned by how small it actually was and how it danced. There's a second marvel here: She saw it all with her tongue.

The tongue, an organ of taste and touch, may seem like an unlikely substitute for the eyes. After all, it's usually hidden inside the mouth, insensitive to light, and not connected to optic nerves. However, a growing body of research indicates that the tongue may in fact be the second-best place on the body for receiving visual information from the world and transmitting it to the brain.

Sweet. I mean, pretty.

Merry Christmas

2007-12-25T14:53:00.000-06:00

Enjoy the holiday.

Fun Friday: Simpsons Trivia

2007-12-21T12:44:00.000-06:00

1. What is the title of Principal Skinner's novel, which bears a striking resemblance to "Jurassic Park?"

2. What is Cletus's full name?

3. What founded Springfield A&M?

4.Luanne Van Houten dates which American Gladiator? And cheats on him with which other American Gladiator?

5. Homer makes a video for Lisa's birthday at a mall kiosk instead of buying her a diary. When making the video he has to tell the video machine some of Lisa's favorite things. The plot of the video has Lisa as a cowboy trying to stop some robbers. Lisa's favorite food (according to Homer) ends up being the item stolen by the robbers in the video. What did the robbers steal?

6. Who quarterbacks the Springfield Atoms? You must mention his nickname.

7. According to Lenny Kravitz, who stuffs his crotch?

8. What is the proper name of Springfield's burlesque house?

9. What is Sideshow Bob's full name?

10. Name everything illegal that is going on in international waters?

Answers will be posted in the comments section at 3:45 or so.

Good luck!

Fun Firday: Decemberween

2007-12-21T10:03:00.000-06:00

The Homestar Christmas cartoons are generally even more bizarre than the regular cartoons, but the strange and nonsensical mythology of Decemberween is still pretty funny.

Davenport Will Not Hamper The Steeler Offense

2007-12-21T10:02:00.000-06:00

Since Willy Parker broke his fibula last night, we get to hear a bunch of Najeh Davenport poop jokes today. Najeh, by the way, is far more productive than Parker on a play by play basis. Still he's always stuck at #2 for some reason. Health has always been an issue for Davenport, but don't be surprised if he actually improves the Steeler offense.

Here is my favorite Najeh closet joke so far today.

Here's another.

Craig Counsell: Ballerina

2007-12-20T10:17:00.000-06:00

And you thought his batting stance was funny. Here is the article, on point:

The Klements racing sausages will also suit up for the Dec. 29 performance. Counsell, who lives in nearby Whitefish Bay, Wis., will go through a dress rehearsal on Friday at the Milwaukee Ballet Studios.

According to the official billing, "audience members will be delighted as these 'rookie' and professional dancers join little Clara in her dream world filled with pirouetting fairies, marching toy soldiers and dancing teddy bears. Comedy will abound, and the laughs won't end until the final curtain falls."

The Terrible Energy Bill

2007-12-19T17:12:00.000-06:00

This thing is quite atrocious.

Laws like this drive people like me nuts. But, they also serve a purpose, which is to show just how idiotic and corrupt a government can be.

First, let's talk about ethanol. Corn-based ethanol sucks. It drives up the price of food, it's bad for the environment, it does not work as well as gasoline, and it's more expensive. Some sugar-based ethanol (produced primarily in Brazil) shows promise, however we levy protective tariffs on Brazillian ethanol. We do this to give money to people in Iowa so that they nominate the candidates who sign energy bills.

The only people who will benefit from this are corn farmers. This bill will literally harm everyone else on earth.

This bill also phases out incandescent light bulbs. Fluorescent bulbs are more energy efficient, however, they give off a harsher light. I hate reading by fluorescent light. It's tough on the eyes. I want to be able to buy incandescent light bulbs. I will no longer be able to do so. That pisses me off.

Here is Cato on the subject.

Here is Nick.

An Excellent Prank

2007-12-19T15:52:00.000-06:00

On EBay, you can purchase the following service:

You are bidding on a rare chance to traumatize a treasured friend or relative with baffling, mind-numbing, mystery correspondence from abroad.

Here is the arrangement:

I will be spending the Christmas holiday in Poland in a tiny village that has one church with no bell because angry Germans stole it. Aside from vodka, there is not a lot for me to do.

During the course of my holiday I will send three postcards to one person of your choosing.

These postcards will be rant-ravingly insane, yet they will be peppered with unmistakable personal details about the addressee. Details you will provide me.

The postcards will not be coherently signed, leaving your mark confused, guessing wildly, crying out in anguish.

"How do I know this person? And how does he know I had a ferret named Goliath?"

Your beloved friend or relative will try in vain to figure out who it is. Best of all, it can't possibly be you because you'll have the perfect alibi: you're not in Poland. You're home, wherever that is, doing whatever it is you do when not driving your friends loopy with international prankery.

Your target will rack their brains in the shower. At dinner. During long drives. At work. On the golf course.

"Who did I tell about the time I got fired by a note on my chair?" they'll ponder, "And where the hell is Szczeczinek?"

But wait, there's more.

To add to the sheer confusion and genuine discomfort, one missive will be on an original promotional postcard announcing the 1995 television premiere of Central Park West on CBS.

Another will be a postcard celebrating Atlanta's disastrous hosting of the 1996 summer Olympic games.

Your mark will be at a complete loss, desperate for answers, debating contacting people he or she hasn't talked to in years.

"I know this will sound weird," they'll say, "but by any chance were you in Eastern Europe ranting about cantaloupe... twelve years ago... right before some show with Mariel Hemingway debuted?"

When you decide to end the torment is completely up to you. If you can, I recommend owning up on 1 April 2008 - giving you nearly half a year of joy and a George Clooney-esque level of prankage. If you can't hold it in that long, I totally understand.

The current bid is $187.50.

(H/T, Marignal Revolution)

Why Not Reduce Taxes To Zero?

2007-12-18T18:26:00.000-06:00

I often point out that many Conservatives support supply-side economics and the Laffer curve without actually understanding what they are. Case in point, Mark Belling:

Laffer is the father of "supply side economics," the theory that as income tax rates are lowered, actual tax revenues increase. Laffer famously demonstrated this by drawing a diagram on the back of a napkin that became legendarily known as the "Laffer Curve." Laffer’s theory was that as tax rates declined, economic activity (and therefore income) would increase resulting in more taxes paid to government.

This is not true. The Laffer curve shows that the actual cost of a tax cut will be smaller than the gross figure attached to the cut. This is due to distortionary effect that taxation has on the economy. When work is taxed, people do not work as hard. It does NOT say that tax cuts increase revenue. While it is possible for tax cuts to generate more revenue, the baseline tax rate for this is likely much higher than the current rate of taxation in the US. I say likely because the Laffer Curve is not some static thing; it changes with economic conditions.

Laffer and his eponymous curve have never asserted that tax cuts increase government revenue. Belling goes on to say that:

The real life experience in Wisconsin not only proves Laffer’s point in reverse but makes it clear that it applies to all taxes, not just income.

Well, not exactly. Taxes do have a distortionary effect on things, but certain activities are more inelastic than others. I'm not sure about property taxes off the top of my head, but I suspect that property ownership is quite inelastic, as someone tends to own any given piece of property. Perhaps people go around abandoning property when taxes are raised, but I doubt it.

Some politicians and economists favor a consumption tax instead of an income tax because in theory this would take away all of the bad incentives associated with an income tax and instead incentivize savings (while penalizing consumption, obviously).

Tax cuts are never as costly as they seem, and tax increases are often worse than they seem, but this is a far cry from what people like Belling claim. Poor Laffer. Almost no one believes him because almost no one actually knows what he said.

Tony Romo: The Natural

2007-12-18T11:43:00.000-06:00

In the movie "The Natural" Roy Hobbes sucks whenever he's cavorting with his blond strumpet.

Yesterday, Jessica Simpson, the latest object of Tony Romo's affections, was in attendance at the Cowboys/Eagles tilt.

Romo was terrible in a Cowboy loss.

I'm just saying.

Packer fans, we must keep Glenn Close away from the Cowboys at all costs!

Fun Friday: Desktop Tower Defense

2007-12-14T11:07:00.001-06:00

Slate had a forum on Video Games this week. One of their reviewers called Desktop Tower Defense his "Game Of The Year." Play at your own risk.

Michael Schumacher Is Awesome

2007-12-12T16:30:00.000-06:00

The Formula One driver was running late, and was going to miss his flight. until he took control of the cab...

Via Deadspin:

With his wife, two children and new addition to the family Ed, the Australian Shepherd pup, on board, Schumacher proceeded to put pedal to metal. Famously, German autobahns have no blanket speed limits, so the driver was able to put the cab through its paces. Although he was driving an Opel Vivaro, a minivan-style vehicle which has a top speed of 163km (101 miles) per hour, Schumacher managed to get the most out of it, according to the cabbie. "He drove at full throttle around the corners and overtook in some unbelievable places," said a white-knuckled Mr Yilmaz.

Turing Test Passed?

2007-12-12T15:00:00.001-06:00

A Russian computer program is picking people up online:

A program that can mimic online flirtation and then extract personal information from its unsuspecting conversation partners is making the rounds in Russian chat forums, according to security software firm PC Tools.

The artificial intelligence of CyberLover's automated chats is good enough that victims have a tough time distinguishing the "bot" from a real potential suitor, PC Tools said. The software can work quickly too, establishing up to 10 relationships in 30 minutes, PC Tools said. It compiles a report on every person it meets complete with name, contact information, and photos.

"As a tool that can be used by hackers to conduct identity fraud, CyberLover demonstrates an unprecedented level of social engineering," PC Tools senior malware analyst Sergei Shevchenko said in a statement.

Here is the Turing Test:

...a human judge engages in a natural language conversation with one human and one machine, each of which try to appear human; if the judge cannot reliably tell which is which, then the machine is said to pass the test. In order to keep the test setting simple and universal (to explicitly test the linguistic capability of the machine instead of its ability to render words into audio), the conversation is usually limited to a text-only channel such as a teletype machine as Turing suggested or, more recently, IRC or instant messaging.

Quote of the Day: Huckabee Wants Everyone Dead

2007-12-12T14:56:00.001-06:00

Although he may have to blow up the Sun to really accomplish this:

I think we ought to be out there talking about ways to reduce energy consumption and waste. And we ought to declare that we will be free of energy consumption in this country within a decade, bold as that is.

Circuit City: Thieves

2007-12-11T21:22:00.000-06:00

The computer that I am currently using was supposed to come with a $200 mail-in rebate from Circuit City. It has been quite some time now, and despite a ton of complaining, and resending of forms, we have yet to receive this money. Can a major company really afford to steal large amounts of cash from its customers? Really?

I buy a lot of electronics, and I'm confident that the loss of my business will cost them more than $200. I will have my revenge in this way, but I'm still shocked that this makes good business sense.

I would advise all of you to stay away from Circuit City, and especially their mail-in rebates. Odds are you will never see the money.

At least I'm not alone. Kevin Drum and Arnold Kling have been duped as well, and Arnold is an economist.

Canada: Free Speech Free

2007-11-28T10:19:00.000-06:00

This is amazing:

The case is Warman v Fromm. Warman is Richard Warman, an attorney who worked for the Canadian Human Rights Commission who routinely brought "hate speech" cases against individuals and organizations under Canada's already existing speech laws. Fromm is Paul Fromm, the head of the Canadian Association for Free Expression and an opponent of those hate speech laws. Fromm is a staunch critic of Warman, calling him an "enemy of free speech." And just to prove him right, Warman sued Fromm for defamation over such speech and the Ontario court ruled in Warman's favor. Seriously.

Read the whole, pathetic thing. This is a good example of "government granted rights" v. "natural rights." Natural rights are those unalienable Rights that Jefferson talks about in the Declaration of Independence. These are the same rights that the Framers of the US Constitution sought to protect from government usurpation when they ratified the Constitution. They specified some of these rights in the Bill of Rights portion of the Constitution. First among these Rights is Freedom of Speech.

In America, we do not have Freedom of Speech because the government says that we do. We have Freedom of Speech because the government is forbidden from taking this Right away. There is no such history or tradition in Canada, where your ability to express yourself rides on the collective whim of a government bureaucracy.

Quote of the Day

2007-11-27T11:47:00.000-06:00

From Bryan Caplan's "The Myth of the Rational Voter:"

For an individual to prosper, he only needs to have a job. But society can only prosper if individuals do a job, if they create goods and services that someone wants.

Economists have been at war with make-work bias for centuries. Bastiat ridicules the equation of prosperity with jobs as "Sisyphism," after the mythological fully-employed Greek who was eternally condemned to roll a boulder up a hill.

Here is Tim Worstall, on a similar note.

The Death By Booze Calculator

2007-11-22T09:51:00.000-06:00

Ah, the age-old question. How much of this will it take to kill me? Well...

It would take 26 bottles of Miller High Life to kill me

You can calculate it for any drink. Check it out:

It would take 28 Apple Tinis to kill me

Huh. It would take more Apple Tinis to kill me than it would Miller High Lifes? Who knew?

Here's the link. Tip o' the cap to Ryan.

Charlie Sykes: Paragon Of Free Speech

2007-11-21T18:59:00.000-06:00

Charlie Sykes is a conservative radio talker in Milwaukee. He got in a huff over a bunch of lefties complaining about these bumper stickers. I find the Tom McMahon "parody" sticker to be unoriginal and dull, but a bunch of people are in a uproar about it for various reasons.

Some group of religious people complained and asked him to take down the McMahon sticker. Sykes gave this somewhat snotty response. It includes lines like:

As for your being offended: I am also frequently offended by things I read and hear. (I’m offended, for instance, by the offensive ignorance of your letter. I am also offended by the fact that with the all of this community’s problems you could not find anything more important to write about.) But I know that is the price I pay to live in a country where we have a vigorous exchange of ideas. My being offended does not give me license to demand that voices I find “offensive” be silenced, or images be removed.

I find this response odd, for a few reasons. The first is that Mr. Sykes moderates comments on his blog, which is not really in the spirit of encouraging robust discourse.

The second reason is that, for all of Charlie's talk about understanding parody and sticking up for free speech, it is worth noting that he recently criticized, and contributed to, a boycott of Miller Brewing Company for their participation in the Folsom Street Festival in San Francisco, and for having their logo on a poster that mocked Da Vinci's Last Supper. Here are a few more examples. It would not be an exaggeration to say that Sykes was obsessed with the story for several weeks.

Charlie, don't you understand parody? I thought you didn't want to silence anyone.

Charlie?

Hello?

Fuck You, Teamsters Local 731.

2007-11-21T08:36:00.000-06:00

I usually rip on the Chicago Transit Authority (CTA) here, but today I have extra-special hatred for the bus driver of the second half of my commute to the northwestern part of the Chicagoland area (which consists of Minnesota, North Dakota, most of Wisconsin, and the Northwest Territories of Canada). Once you get out to the suburbs of Chicago, you are no longer dealing with the CTA. Public transit out there is run by PACE, and this morning, without any notice, PACE workers walked off of the job:

Wilmot said the union rejected the suburban bus agency's contract offer earlier this month, effectively authorizing a strike. But the union had indicated it was willing to participate in further bargaining sessions before walking off the job, he said.
"In our eyes this is an illegal strike," Wilmot said. "Our belief was that the union was going to come to the table and negotiate."

Union representatives were not immediately available for comment.

Wilmot said Pace was "in the process" of working out dates for mediation with the union and was not notified of the strike in advance. There is no plan to continue service with replacement workers, he said.

Now I don't much care for unions, but this strike strikes me as particularly egregious. First of all, this is clearly just providing the union members with an extra-long weekend. I don't find strikes particularly noble, but the timing certainly takes away from whatever moral highground they may have had.

Secondly, not announcing this in advance is just plain mean. I'm sure that a lot of people did not find out about it until they were standing at a bus stop. I only found out about it because a co-worker went in early today to get a head start on traffic later.

I did manage to get a ride with someone, but had I gotten out to the PACE bus stop without finding out about the strike, I would have been facing a $48 cab ride (plus tip).

So fuck off Teamsters. You've succeeded in screwing up the beginning of the holiday weekend for 22,000 people.

The Hilarious Creation Museum

2007-11-19T22:06:00.001-06:00

Here you can take a tour of $27 Million Creation Museum. It's fantastic. My favorite slide is #17, in which Adam is shown in the Garden of Eden hanging out with a Penguin and a Toucan.

Thanks!

2007-11-19T22:00:00.001-06:00

To everyone who attended my 30th Birthday Party on Saturday at Uberstein. I had a great time, and I really appreciate everyone coming out. Plus I didn't throw up for the second straight year. Here's a shot of yours truly (a few sheets to the wind) doing the Shotski:

A toast to all of my friends!

Detroit: Worse Than Iraq

2007-11-19T11:59:00.000-06:00

This is outstanding. Hilarious. Fantastically outrageous.

So CNN has this article about how the "most dangerous city" rankings twist the numbers. CNN is trying to convince you in this article that some of the most dangerous cities in the US aren't really that dangerous. And, in the course of defending these misunderstood metropoleis, the CNN reporter in question wrote this:

Detroit was pegged the nation's murder capital in the 1980s and has lost nearly 1 million people since 1950, according to the Census Bureau.

Pardon me.

(Wahahahaahahah. HAAAAA.)

Whew. OK. I'm back. So, apparently Detroit has seen suffering from about 21,000 murders per year (or 57 per day) since 1950. And you know that it peaked in the 80s, so they were probably losing hundreds of people per day at some point.

I mean, I expect this sort of mangled language from FoxNews, but this is CNN.

If you want to know what the reporter meant to say, you can read the whole article.

The True Costs Of Iraq

2007-11-17T11:04:00.000-06:00

Tyler Cowen has a great piece in the Washington Post, highlighting some of the hidden costs of the war in Iraq:

Foreign governments, of course, drew the obvious lesson from our debacle -- and from our choice of target. The United States invaded hapless Iraq, not nuclear-armed North Korea. To the real rogues, the fall of Baghdad was proof positive that it's more important than ever to acquire nuclear weapons -- and if the last superpower is bogged down in Iraq while its foes slink toward getting the bomb, so much the better. Iran, among others, has taken this lesson to heart. The ironic legacy of the war to end all proliferation will be more proliferation.

Fun Friday: Geek Edition

2007-11-15T22:42:00.000-06:00

Because nothing is geekier than Marching Band and Video Games:

Awesome Toys. Way Better Than Transformers.

2007-11-14T20:20:00.000-06:00

I mean, I thought that Legos were great...that is, until Cock Bloc Super:

That's not even the best one either. I'm also a fan of the kiddie stripper pole, and the Jesus robot.

Big ol' hat tip to Tyler Cowen, who also discusses the new, very observant cigarette machines.

Beer.

2007-11-14T20:10:00.000-06:00

Former Co-Blogger Ryan started a beer blog. You should check it out. Michelob Oktoberfest? Ewwwwww.

Worst. Censorship. Ever.

2007-11-12T22:21:00.000-06:00

I was just watching The Breakfast Club on Bravo. In the scene where Vernon is giving Bender all of those detentions, at one point Bender tells Vernon to:

Bender: Eat my shorts.
Vernon: What was that?
Bender: Eat. My. Shorts.

This was apparently a bit too risque for Bravo, which edited the conversation to read:

Bender: Eat my socks.
Vernon (and Paul): What was that?
Bender: Eat. My. Socks.

I mean, holy shorts! It's like 10:30 at night too. What the hell?

One time I was watching "Tremors" on USA and they edited out the words "mother humpers" and replaced them with "damn monsters." I didn't think I would hear an edit more egregious than taking out a vague sexual reference in favor of blasphemy, but I think that "socks" for "shorts" might best it.

Does This Mean That Pat Robertson Supports Hurricanes?

2007-11-08T12:12:00.000-06:00

Former presidential candidate and faith-healing weirdo Pat Robertson has endorsed the twice-divorced, gay-friendly cross-dresser, Rudolf Giuliani for President of the United States.

If memory serves, Pat Robertson often says crazy things like 'God will destroy Florida because of Disney's "Gay Days."' For instance:

Mr. Robertson said tolerance of homosexual activity ''could bring about earthquakes, tornadoes, and possibly a meteor.'' He warned Orlando, then festooned with flags marking the gay celebration: ''You are right in the way of some serious hurricanes and I don't think I'd be waving those flags in God's face if I were you.''

What can we conclude from this? Clearly, Pat Robertson wants to destroy the country.

I mean, either that or he's a phony hypocrite who cares more about winning an election than the actual issues involved.

I wonder, given the "end times" mentality of some evangelicals, which option is actually more plausible.

Stupid Republican Quote

2007-11-05T21:43:00.001-06:00

Last week I was listening to Mark Belling. He said:

The Constitution never mentions waterboarding. Where in the Constitution does it mention waterboarding? Where does it say that it's illegal? It's not like a search and seizure.

You, of course, already know why this is stupid. But it's nice to point out the plethora of ways in which this is stupid.

First of all, the Constitution does not forbid many specific acts. It does not say "Thou shalt not covet they neighbors ass." It tends to be a bit more general, and deals more with the powers of government. Everyone that has ever read the Constitution knows this.

This argument is sort of an offshoot of the asinine conservative argument that the words "separation of church and state" are not mentioned in the Constitution. While technically true, the concept does in fact exist in the Constitution.

Anyway, Belling made this way dumber than it had to be by actually referencing the Bill of Rights. Of course there is no "search and seizure" issue. There is also no issue of quartering soldiers.

Waterboarding is, of course, cruel, and unusual. This runs afoul of 8th Amendment:

Excessive bail shall not be required, nor excessive fines imposed, nor cruel and unusual punishments inflicted.

I italicized the relevant portion, just so no one misses it.

If you believe that waterboarding is not torture, read this.

CTA Doomsday

2007-11-02T09:06:00.000-05:00

I frequently pick on the Chicago Transit Authority (CTA) just because they occasionally try to murder me. Lately, they've been running their biannual "Doomsday" advertisements in which they attempt to convince people who don't ride public transit to pay more in taxes so that people who do ride public transit don't have to pay an extra dollar in fares. It's surprisingly effective.

On one of their signs on the train (they put their advertising up everywhere during "Doomsday month" to the exclusion of revenue-generating advertisements) they compare their level of state funding with the transit systems in San Francisco, Boston, and L.A. You will notice that these three systems exist in very high-tax states. You will also notice that New York City is conspiscuously absent.

But I'm not here today to bore you with financial minutiae. Oh no. I'm here today to report on what CTA Chairwoman Carole Brown said in an interview in the RedEye this morning. (It's not yet online, so I'm copying the quote from the paper version.)

Carole Brown wants more funding because:

We don't advertise it, but during the day, we increase bus service around certain schools and high schools to clear the campus and avert conflicts...keeping kids from being caught up in gang activity.

She goes on to say that if service is cut...

It makes me sick to my stomach to think about what might happen.

That's right. Public transit prevents gang activity. Kids are apparently waiting around after school, getting bored, and joining gangs...at least until the bus shows up to save the day!

We commuters have heard many stupid reasons to call our legislators about CTA funding, but this one is probably the worst. And as everyone in the city knows, they could probably fix all of their problems by firing all of Todd Stroger's second cousins.

(Note: You really should click on the Todd Stroger link, just to see his nickname on Wikipedia while it's still there.)

Update: This morning the Wikipedia entry for Todd Stroger listed him as Todd "Urkel the Douchebag" Stroger. Seriously. It has now been edited to Todd "Urkel" Stroger.